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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are 3-4 basis points higher this morning despite a 5% decline in oil prices.

Oil has been on a wild ride over the last day and a half. After peaking at nearly $120 late Sunday evening, oil prices fell to as low as $84 yesterday afternoon and currently sit at $93 (Brent crude). Yesterday’s market recovery was attributable to multiple headlines, including Trump’s suggestion that the war would “resolve very soon” and that he could take several steps to reduce oil prices, including easing oil-related sanctions and escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz. However, market jitters emerged again overnight on reports of an explosion on an oil tanker in Abu Dhabi and fresh Israeli strikes on Tehran. Equity futures are point to a lower open for US stocks following yesterday’s bounce.

Jason Haley
President & Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
3/10/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism99.698.899.3
3/10/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —15.500k     —
3/10/2026Existing Home Sales3.88m     —3.91m
3/10/2026Existing Home Sales MoM-0.80%     —-8.40%
3/11/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —11.00%
3/11/2026CPI MoM0.30%     —0.20%
3/11/2026Core CPI MoM0.20%     —0.30%
3/11/2026CPI YoY2.40%     —2.40%
3/11/2026Core CPI YoY2.50%     —2.50%
3/11/2026CPI Index NSA326.762     —325.25
3/11/2026Core CPI Index SA333.546     —332.79
3/11/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.20%
3/11/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —1.90%
3/11/2026Federal Budget Balance-$309.5b     —-$94.6b
3/12/2026Trade Balance-$66.0b     —-$70.3b
3/12/2026Imports MoM     —     —3.60%
3/12/2026Exports MoM     —     —-1.70%
3/12/2026Initial Jobless Claims215k     —213k
3/12/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —215.75k
3/12/2026Continuing Claims1850k     —1868k
3/12/2026Housing Starts1341k     —1404k
3/12/2026Building Permits1410k     —     —
3/12/2026Housing Starts MoM-4.50%     —6.20%
3/12/2026Building Permits MoM-3.10%     —     —
3/12/2026Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$6064b
3/13/2026Personal Income0.50%     —0.30%
3/13/2026Personal Spending0.30%     —0.40%
3/13/2026Real Personal Spending0.00%     —0.10%
3/13/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.40%
3/13/2026PCE Price Index YoY2.90%     —2.90%
3/13/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.40%     —0.40%
3/13/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.10%     —3.00%
3/13/2026Durable Goods Orders1.20%     —-1.40%
3/13/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.50%     —1.00%
3/13/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%     —0.80%
3/13/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%     —1.00%
3/13/2026GDP Annualized QoQ1.40%     —1.40%
3/13/2026Personal Consumption2.40%     —2.40%
3/13/2026GDP Price Index3.60%     —3.60%
3/13/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ2.70%     —2.70%
3/13/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment55     —56.6
3/13/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions54.6     —56.6
3/13/2026U. of Mich. Expectations54.4     —56.6
3/13/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.70%     —3.40%
3/13/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.40%     —3.30%
3/13/2026JOLTS Job Openings6750k     —6542k
3/13/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —3.90%
3/13/2026JOLTS Quits Level3109k     —3204k
3/13/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%
3/13/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level1764k     —1762k
3/13/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%
3/16/2026Empire Manufacturing3.9     —7.1
3/16/2026Industrial Production MoM0.20%     —0.70%
3/16/2026Manufacturing (SIC) Production     —     —0.60%
3/16/2026Capacity Utilization76.20%     —76.20%
3/16/2026NAHB Housing Market Index37     —36
3/17/2026Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey   
3/17/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —15.500k
3/17/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-25.7
3/17/2026Leading Index     —     —-0.20%
3/17/2026Pending Home Sales MoM-1.00%     —-0.80%
3/17/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —-1.20%

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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