Treasury yields are lower across the curve in a bull steepening move as the market tries to digest inflation reports and fluctuations in oil prices.
The January PCE data released this morning was broadly in line with expectations, thus limiting the downside risk of higher inflation, even though these numbers predate the Iran war. Fed Funds futures currently price in only 1 rate cut for 2026 following recent inflation data. Brent crude oil slipped back below $100 this morning, though statements from President Trump and the new Iranian leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, yesterday appear to indicate no near-term easing of the war. All three major stock indexes were down over 1.50% following the continued tensions in the Strait and on oil prices. Equity futures point to a reversal this morning, with all 3 future indexes indicating a positive open.
Kirby Hart
Director
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/13/2026 | Personal Income | 0.50% | 0.40% | 0.30% | — |
| 3/13/2026 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.40% | — |
| 3/13/2026 | Real Personal Spending | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.10% | — |
| 3/13/2026 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.40% | — |
| 3/13/2026 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.90% | 2.80% | 2.90% | — |
| 3/13/2026 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.40% | — |
| 3/13/2026 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.10% | 3.10% | 3.00% | — |
| 3/13/2026 | Durable Goods Orders | 1.10% | 0.00% | -1.40% | -0.90% |
| 3/13/2026 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | 0.40% | 1.00% | 1.30% |
| 3/13/2026 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | 0.00% | 0.80% | — |
| 3/13/2026 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.40% | -0.10% | 1.00% | — |
| 3/13/2026 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 1.40% | 0.70% | 1.40% | — |
| 3/13/2026 | Personal Consumption | 2.40% | 2.00% | 2.40% | — |
| 3/13/2026 | GDP Price Index | 3.60% | 3.80% | 3.60% | — |
| 3/13/2026 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 2.70% | 2.70% | 2.70% | — |
| 3/13/2026 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 54.8 | — | 56.6 | — |
| 3/13/2026 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 54.9 | — | 56.6 | — |
| 3/13/2026 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 54.5 | — | 56.6 | — |
| 3/13/2026 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 3.70% | — | 3.40% | — |
| 3/13/2026 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.40% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 3/13/2026 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6750k | — | 6542k | — |
| 3/13/2026 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | 4.00% | — | 3.90% | — |
| 3/13/2026 | JOLTS Quits Level | 3118k | — | 3204k | — |
| 3/13/2026 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 2.00% | — |
| 3/13/2026 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | 1766k | — | 1762k | — |
| 3/13/2026 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 3/16/2026 | Empire Manufacturing | 3.9 | — | 7.1 | — |
| 3/16/2026 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 3/16/2026 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.20% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 3/16/2026 | Capacity Utilization | 76.20% | — | 76.20% | — |
| 3/16/2026 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 37 | — | 36 | — |
| 3/17/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | — | 15.500k | — |
| 3/17/2026 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -25.7 | — |
| 3/17/2026 | Leading Index | — | — | -0.20% | — |
| 3/17/2026 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -1.00% | — | -0.80% | — |
| 3/17/2026 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -1.20% | — |
| 3/18/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 3.20% | — |
| 3/18/2026 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 3/18/2026 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 3/18/2026 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 3/18/2026 | PPI Final Demand YoY | — | — | 2.90% | — |
| 3/18/2026 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | — | — | 3.60% | — |
| 3/18/2026 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.40% | — |
| 3/18/2026 | Factory Orders | — | — | -0.70% | — |
| 3/18/2026 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 3/18/2026 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 3/18/2026 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 3/18/2026 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 3/18/2026 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 3/18/2026 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 3.75% | — | 3.75% | — |
| 3/18/2026 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 3.50% | — | 3.50% | — |
| 3/18/2026 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | — | — | 3.65% | — |
| 3/18/2026 | Fed Reverse Repo Rate | — | — | 3.50% | — |
| 3/18/2026 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr | — | — | 3.63% | — |
| 3/18/2026 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr | — | — | 3.38% | — |
| 3/18/2026 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs | — | — | 3.13% | — |
| 3/18/2026 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 3/18/2026 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $44.9b | — |
| 3/18/2026 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $28.0b | — |
| 3/19/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 213k | — |
| 3/19/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 212.00k | — |
| 3/19/2026 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1850k | — |
| 3/19/2026 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | — | — | 16.3 | — |
| 3/19/2026 | New Home Sales | 725k | — | 745k | — |
| 3/19/2026 | New Home Sales MoM | -2.70% | — | -1.70% | — |
| 3/19/2026 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 3/19/2026 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 1.00% | — |
| 3/19/2026 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | $6064b | — |
| 3/19/2026 | Building Permits | — | — | 1376k | — |
| 3/19/2026 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | -5.40% | — |
| 3/20/2026 | Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey |
