Treasury yields are up around 1 basis point across the curve this morning after the sell-off to begin March.
The 10-year got as high as 4.10% yesterday but retraced to finish back around 4.06% as the market is still dealing with news on the Middle East. Seems far from the February month-end lows of 3.93%. S&P 500 futures point to a slightly positive open after the sell-off to finish Tuesday, after Treasury Secretary Bessent said a proposed 15% global tariff may take effect this week. On the econ data front, ADP research released data that private-sector payrolls increased 63,000 above the median estimate of 50k, avoiding another downside shock. The market will continue to keep a close eye on news from the Middle East and on tariffs.
Kirby Hart
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/4/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 11.00% | 0.40% | — |
| 3/4/2026 | ADP Employment Change | 50k | 63k | 22k | 11k |
| 3/4/2026 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 52.3 | — | 52.3 | — |
| 3/4/2026 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 52.3 | — | 52.3 | — |
| 3/4/2026 | ISM Services Index | 53.5 | — | 53.8 | — |
| 3/4/2026 | ISM Services Prices Paid | 68.3 | — | 66.6 | — |
| 3/4/2026 | ISM Services New Orders | 53.5 | — | 53.1 | — |
| 3/4/2026 | ISM Services Employment | 50.6 | — | 50.3 | — |
| 3/4/2026 | Fed Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 3/5/2026 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 117.80% | — |
| 3/5/2026 | Challenger Job Cuts Total | — | — | 108435 | — |
| 3/5/2026 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 3/5/2026 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 3/5/2026 | Import Price Index YoY | 0.20% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 3/5/2026 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 3/5/2026 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 3.10% | — |
| 3/5/2026 | Nonfarm Productivity | 1.80% | — | 4.90% | — |
| 3/5/2026 | Unit Labor Costs | 2.00% | — | -1.90% | — |
| 3/5/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | — | 212k | — |
| 3/5/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 220.25k | — |
| 3/5/2026 | Continuing Claims | 1848k | — | 1833k | — |
| 3/6/2026 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | -0.30% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 3/6/2026 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 3/6/2026 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.20% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 3/6/2026 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 3/6/2026 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 58k | — | 130k | — |
| 3/6/2026 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -17k | — |
| 3/6/2026 | Change in Private Payrolls | 65k | — | 172k | — |
| 3/6/2026 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -2k | — | 5k | — |
| 3/6/2026 | Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg | — | — | 73k | — |
| 3/6/2026 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 3/6/2026 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.70% | — | 3.70% | — |
| 3/6/2026 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.3 | — |
| 3/6/2026 | Unemployment Rate | 4.30% | — | 4.30% | — |
| 3/6/2026 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.50% | — | 62.50% | — |
| 3/6/2026 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 8.00% | — |
| 3/6/2026 | Business Inventories | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 3/6/2026 | Consumer Credit | $12.650b | — | $24.045b | — |
| 3/9/2026 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.09% | — |
| 3/10/2026 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | — | — | 99.3 | — |
| 3/10/2026 | Existing Home Sales | 3.85m | — | 3.91m | — |
| 3/10/2026 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -1.50% | — | -8.40% | — |
| 3/11/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 11.00% | — |
| 3/11/2026 | CPI MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 3/11/2026 | Core CPI MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 3/11/2026 | CPI YoY | 2.40% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 3/11/2026 | Core CPI YoY | 2.40% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 3/11/2026 | CPI Index NSA | — | — | 325.252 | — |
| 3/11/2026 | Core CPI Index SA | — | — | 332.793 | — |
| 3/11/2026 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.20% | — |
| 3/11/2026 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 1.90% | — |
| 3/11/2026 | Federal Budget Balance | — | — | -$94.6b | — |
