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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields were moving higher again this morning as Brent crude oil approached $90 per barrel, but a much softer than expected jobs report has fueled a reversal in rates.

Nonfarm payrolls shed 92,000 jobs in February versus expectations of 55,000 jobs being added. At the same time, the establishment survey showed hotter-than-expected wage inflation, with average hourly earnings rising 0.4% m/m and 3.8% y/y. In the household survey, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose 10 bps to 4.4% as household employment fell by 185,000. All in all, this was not a good report, and it was perhaps overly impacted by difficult weather conditions across parts of the country.

In a separate report, retail sales were mostly in line with expectations, with the control group rising a solid 0.3% m/m. Equity index futures are down 70-90 bps about 45 minutes ahead of the open, and Treasury yields are now unchanged to slightly higher versus yesterday’s close. We will get multiple opportunities to hear the Fed’s perspective on recent events, with 9 different leaders speaking publicly.

Jason Haley
President & Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/6/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls55k-92k130k126k
3/6/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —-69k-17k     —
3/6/2026Change in Private Payrolls60k-86k172k146k
3/6/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls-2k-12k5k     —
3/6/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —6k73k50k
3/6/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.40%0.40%     —
3/6/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%3.80%3.70%     —
3/6/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.334.334.3     —
3/6/2026Unemployment Rate4.30%4.40%4.30%     —
3/6/2026Labor Force Participation Rate62.50%62.00%62.50%62.10%
3/6/2026Underemployment Rate     —7.90%8.00%8.10%
3/6/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.30%-0.20%0.00%     —
3/6/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.00%0.00%0.00%     —
3/6/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.20%0.30%0.00%0.10%
3/6/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.30%0.30%-0.10%0.00%
3/6/2026Business Inventories0.10%     —0.10%     —
3/6/2026Consumer Credit$12.650b     —$24.045b     —
3/9/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.09%     —
3/10/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism99.6     —99.3     —
3/10/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —12.750k     —
3/10/2026Existing Home Sales3.87m     —3.91m     —
3/10/2026Existing Home Sales MoM-1.20%     —-8.40%     —
3/11/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —11.00%     —
3/11/2026CPI MoM0.20%     —0.20%     —
3/11/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
3/11/2026CPI YoY2.50%     —2.40%     —
3/11/2026Core CPI YoY2.40%     —2.50%     —
3/11/2026CPI Index NSA     —     —325.252     —
3/11/2026Core CPI Index SA     —     —332.793     —
3/11/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.20%     —
3/11/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —1.90%     —
3/11/2026Federal Budget Balance     —     —-$94.6b     —
3/12/2026Trade Balance-$67.9b     —-$70.3b     —
3/12/2026Imports MoM     —     —3.60%     —
3/12/2026Exports MoM     —     —-1.70%     —
3/12/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —213k     —
3/12/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —215.75k     —
3/12/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1868k     —
3/12/2026Housing Starts1340k     —1404k     —
3/12/2026Building Permits1392k     —     —     —
3/12/2026Housing Starts MoM-4.60%     —6.20%     —
3/12/2026Building Permits MoM-4.30%     —     —     —
3/12/2026Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$6064b     —
3/13/2026Personal Income0.50%     —0.30%     —
3/13/2026Personal Spending0.30%     —0.40%     —
3/13/2026Real Personal Spending     —     —0.10%     —
3/13/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.40%     —
3/13/2026PCE Price Index YoY2.90%     —2.90%     —
3/13/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.40%     —0.40%     —
3/13/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.10%     —3.00%     —
3/13/2026Durable Goods Orders0.40%     —-1.40%     —
3/13/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.40%     —1.00%     —
3/13/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.80%     —
3/13/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —1.00%     —
3/13/2026GDP Annualized QoQ1.40%     —1.40%     —
3/13/2026Personal Consumption     —     —2.40%     —
3/13/2026GDP Price Index     —     —3.60%     —
3/13/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ     —     —2.70%     —
3/13/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment56.3     —56.6     —
3/13/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —56.6     —
3/13/2026U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —56.6     —
3/13/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —3.40%     —
3/13/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.30%     —
3/13/2026JOLTS Job Openings     —     —6542k     —
3/13/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —3.90%     —
3/13/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3204k     —
3/13/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%     —
3/13/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1762k     —
3/13/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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