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Author Jason Haley

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Crude oil prices peaked at $119.50 per barrel overnight before reports that the G7 countries were considering releasing strategic reserves to stabilize prices.

Following the pullback, crude prices remain up 11% on the day at $103 for Brent crude. Treasury yields are up a more modest 2-3 basis points this morning, and US equity index futures are down approximately 1%, a little more than an hour before the open. Beyond the geopolitical focus, the February CPI report will be released on Wednesday. Higher energy prices clearly wouldn’t have impacted this report, but market participants will be looking for confirmation of the surprisingly soft January report. Recent PPI data and business surveys suggested more upside risk to prices than down.  The Fed has entered its communication blackout period ahead of the March 18 FOMC meeting.

Jason Haley
President & Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/10/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —12.750k     —
3/12/2026Building Permits1414k     —     —     —
3/12/2026Building Permits MoM-2.90%     —     —     —
3/13/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%     —0.80%     —
3/13/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%     —1.00%     —
3/16/2026Capacity Utilization76.20%     —76.20%     —
3/12/2026Continuing Claims1850k     —1868k     —
3/11/2026Core CPI Index SA     —     —332.79     —
3/11/2026Core CPI MoM0.20%     —0.30%     —
3/11/2026Core CPI YoY2.50%     —2.50%     —
3/13/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.40%     —0.40%     —
3/13/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ2.70%     —2.70%     —
3/13/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.10%     —3.00%     —
3/11/2026CPI Index NSA326.696     —325.25     —
3/11/2026CPI MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
3/11/2026CPI YoY2.40%     —2.40%     —
3/13/2026Durable Goods Orders1.20%     —-1.40%     —
3/13/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.50%     —1.00%     —
3/16/2026Empire Manufacturing     —     —7.1     —
3/10/2026Existing Home Sales3.88m     —3.91m     —
3/10/2026Existing Home Sales MoM-0.80%     —-8.40%     —
3/12/2026Exports MoM     —     —-1.70%     —
3/11/2026Federal Budget Balance-$325.0b     —-$94.6b     —
3/13/2026GDP Annualized QoQ1.40%     —1.40%     —
3/13/2026GDP Price Index3.60%     —3.60%     —
3/12/2026Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$6064b     —
3/12/2026Housing Starts1347k     —1404k     —
3/12/2026Housing Starts MoM-4.10%     —6.20%     —
3/12/2026Imports MoM     —     —3.60%     —
3/16/2026Industrial Production MoM0.00%     —0.70%     —
3/12/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —215.75k     —
3/12/2026Initial Jobless Claims215k     —213k     —
3/13/2026JOLTS Job Openings6750k     —6542k     —
3/13/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —3.90%     —
3/13/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1762k     —
3/13/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%     —
3/13/2026JOLTS Quits Level3100k     —3204k     —
3/13/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%     —
3/16/2026Manufacturing (SIC) Production     —     —0.60%     —
3/11/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —11.00%     —
3/16/2026NAHB Housing Market Index     —     —36     —
3/10/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism99.5     —99.3     —
3/9/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.09%     —
3/13/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.40%     —
3/13/2026PCE Price Index YoY2.90%     —2.90%     —
3/13/2026Personal Consumption2.40%     —2.40%     —
3/13/2026Personal Income0.50%     —0.30%     —
3/13/2026Personal Spending0.30%     —0.40%     —
3/11/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.20%     —
3/11/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —1.90%     —
3/13/2026Real Personal Spending0.00%     —0.10%     —
3/12/2026Trade Balance-$65.8b     —-$70.3b     —
3/13/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —3.40%     —
3/13/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.30%     —
3/13/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —56.6     —
3/13/2026U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —56.6     —
3/13/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment55     —56.6     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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