The Treasury curve is slightly steeper with the 2-year down 3 bps and the 10-year unchanged, while equity futures are all in negative territory ahead of the open. Risk sentiment has weakened following corporate statements indicating that tariffs will hamper profits. Ford pulled its forward guidance due to tariffs and stated that they expected a $1.5 billion hit to adjusted earnings before interest and taxes. The market will turn its focus towards tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, and while no change in interest rates is expected, investors will be looking to glean any guidance they can.
Hafizan Hamzah Senior Director, Investment Management Group
Date Event Survey Actual Prior 5/6/2025 Trade Balance -$137.2b -$140.5b -$122.7b 5/7/2025 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -4.20% 5/7/2025 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 4.50% — 4.50% 5/7/2025 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 4.25% — 4.25% 5/7/2025 Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate 4.40% — 4.40% 5/7/2025 Consumer Credit $9.387b — -$0.810b 5/8/2025 Nonfarm Productivity -0.80% — 1.50% 5/8/2025 Unit Labor Costs 5.10% — 2.20% 5/8/2025 Initial Jobless Claims 230k — 241k 5/8/2025 Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg — — 226.00k 5/8/2025 Continuing Claims 1895k — 1916k 5/8/2025 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.90% — 2.40% 5/8/2025 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.50% — 0.50% 5/8/2025 NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations — — 3.58% 5/12/2025 Federal Budget Balance — — -$160.5b 5/13/2025 NFIB Small Business Optimism 94.5 — 97.4 5/13/2025 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY — — 0.80% 5/13/2025 CPI MoM 0.30% — -0.10% 5/13/2025 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.30% — 0.10% 5/13/2025 CPI YoY 2.40% — 2.40% 5/13/2025 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.80% — 2.80% 5/13/2025 CPI Index NSA — — 319.799 5/13/2025 CPI Core Index SA — — 325.659 5/13/2025 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY — — 1.40%
Hafizan Hamzah Senior Director, Investment Management Group
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