The front-end of the curve is selling off this morning, with the 2-year up 3 bps ahead of today’s FOMC meeting. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, but the market will pay close attention to Fed Chair Powell’s comments. Equities are up following news of the first confirmed trade talks between the US and China. Officials from both countries are expected to travel to Switzerland later this week to hold trade discussions. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the meeting will focus on de-escalation in tensions as opposed to ironing out a deal.
Hafizan Hamzah Senior Director, Investment Management Group
Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised 5/7/2025 MBA Mortgage Applications — 11.00% -4.20% — 5/7/2025 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 4.50% — 4.50% — 5/7/2025 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 4.25% — 4.25% — 5/7/2025 Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate 4.40% — 4.40% — 5/7/2025 Consumer Credit $9.387b — -$0.810b — 5/8/2025 Nonfarm Productivity -0.80% — 1.50% — 5/8/2025 Unit Labor Costs 5.10% — 2.20% — 5/8/2025 Initial Jobless Claims 230k — 241k — 5/8/2025 Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg — — 226.00k — 5/8/2025 Continuing Claims 1895k — 1916k — 5/8/2025 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.90% — 2.40% — 5/8/2025 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.50% — 0.50% — 5/8/2025 NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations — — 3.58% — 5/12/2025 Federal Budget Balance — — -$160.5b — 5/13/2025 NFIB Small Business Optimism 94.4 — 97.4 — 5/13/2025 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY — — 0.80% 1.10% 5/13/2025 CPI MoM 0.30% — -0.10% — 5/13/2025 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.30% — 0.10% — 5/13/2025 CPI YoY 2.40% — 2.40% — 5/13/2025 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.80% — 2.80% — 5/13/2025 CPI Index NSA 320.883 — 319.799 — 5/13/2025 CPI Core Index SA — — 325.659 — 5/13/2025 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY — — 1.40% — 5/14/2025 MBA Mortgage Applications — — 11.00% —
Hafizan Hamzah Senior Director, Investment Management Group
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