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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Treasury yields are modestly lower as the market reopens following yesterday’s holiday.

The House is returning to Washington with the goal of voting on ending the government shutdown later today. If a vote passes to reopen the government, the market will look to government agencies for guidance on the release of delayed economic data reports. On the private data side, the MBA mortgage activity index rose 0.6% last week, with purchase applications rising 5.8% (refi applications -3.4%). The average 30-year conventional contract rate rose 3 basis points (bps) w/w to 6.34% according to the MBA survey. The 30-year rate has fallen 64 bps so far in 2025, but looking back to September 17, 2024, just before the Fed announced the first of 150 bps of rate cuts in the current cycle, the average mortgage rate is up 20 bps.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
11/12/2025List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown   
11/12/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —0.60%-1.90%
11/13/2025Initial Jobless Claims225k     —     —
11/13/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —     —
11/13/2025Continuing Claims1961k     —     —
11/13/2025CPI MoM0.20%     —0.30%
11/13/2025Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.20%
11/13/2025CPI YoY3.00%     —3.00%
11/13/2025Core CPI YoY3.00%     —3.00%
11/13/2025CPI Index NSA     —     —324.8
11/13/2025Core CPI Index SA     —     —330.542
11/13/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —     —
11/13/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —     —
11/13/2025Federal Budget Balance-$228.8b     —$198.0b
11/14/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.20%     —     —
11/14/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%     —     —
11/14/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%     —     —
11/14/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.30%     —     —
11/14/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%     —     —
11/14/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —     —
11/14/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM     —     —     —
11/14/2025PPI Final Demand YoY2.50%     —     —
11/14/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.60%     —     —
11/14/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —     —
11/14/2025Business Inventories0.20%     —     —
11/17/2025Empire Manufacturing7.6     —10.7
11/18/2025ADP Weekly Employment Preliminary Estimate   
11/18/2025Import Price Index MoM     —     —     —
11/18/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —     —
11/18/2025Import Price Index YoY     —     —     —
11/18/2025Export Price Index MoM     —     —     —
11/18/2025Export Price Index YoY     —     —     —
11/18/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-23.6
11/18/2025Industrial Production MoM0.00%     —     —
11/18/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%     —     —
11/18/2025Capacity Utilization77.30%     —     —
11/18/2025NAHB Housing Market Index     —     —37
11/18/2025Total Net TIC Flows     —     —     —
11/18/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —     —
11/19/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —0.60%
11/19/2025Housing Starts     —     —1307k
11/19/2025Building Permits     —     —     —
11/19/2025Housing Starts MoM     —     —     —
11/19/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
11/19/2025FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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