Author Jason Haley
Published November 10, 2025
Estimated
Reports that the longest government shutdown in US history may be close to an end has boosted risk assets this morning. S&P 500 futures are up nearly 1% an hour ahead of the open, and Treasury yields are up 3-4 basis points across the curve. A group of eight Democratic caucus voters in the Senate voted affirmatively for a procedural vote to advance the funding bill and end the shutdown. Once passed by the Senate, the bill would also need to be approved by the House later this week, which is not considered a sure thing at this point. Several Fed leaders are scheduled to speak this week, including Mary Daly (SF Fed) and Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed) this morning.
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
Date Event Survey Actual Prior 11/10/2025 List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown 11/11/2025 NFIB Small Business Optimism 98.5 — 98.8 11/12/2025 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -1.90% 11/13/2025 Initial Jobless Claims 225k — — 11/13/2025 Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg — — — 11/13/2025 CPI MoM 0.20% — 0.30% 11/13/2025 Core CPI MoM 0.30% — 0.20% 11/13/2025 CPI YoY 3.00% — 3.00% 11/13/2025 Core CPI YoY 3.00% — 3.00% 11/13/2025 CPI Index NSA — — 324.8 11/13/2025 Core CPI Index SA — — 330.542 11/13/2025 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY — — — 11/13/2025 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY — — — 11/13/2025 Continuing Claims — — — 11/13/2025 Federal Budget Balance -$246.8b — $198.0b 11/14/2025 Retail Sales Advance MoM -0.20% — — 11/14/2025 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.30% — — 11/14/2025 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas — — — 11/14/2025 Retail Sales Control Group 0.30% — — 11/14/2025 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.20% — — 11/14/2025 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.30% — — 11/14/2025 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM — — — 11/14/2025 PPI Final Demand YoY 2.50% — — 11/14/2025 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.60% — — 11/14/2025 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY — — — 11/14/2025 Business Inventories 0.20% — — 11/17/2025 Empire Manufacturing 7.6 — 10.7
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
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