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Author Kirby Hart

Published

Estimated

Last week, the government shutdown ended on Wednesday, and a tech selloff began to finish the week.

However, the S&P 500’s year-to-date return stands at a strong +14.49%. Treasury yields are initially unchanged to slightly lower across the curve, and the market continues to price down the odds of a December rate cut (now 41% in Fed Funds futures). With the government shutdown ending, we can expect economic data to start trickling in, with the major report coming in the form of the September jobs report on Thursday. On the equity side, Nvidia is set to report earnings on Wednesday evening, which will provide investors with a better understanding of the tech sector.

Kirby Hart
Associate

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
11/17/2025List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown   
11/17/2025Empire Manufacturing5.818.710.7
11/17/2025Construction Spending MoM-0.10%     —-0.10%
11/17/2025-11/20/2025Federal Budget Balance-$228.8b     —-$257.5b
11/18/2025ADP Weekly Employment Preliminary Estimate   
11/18/2025Import Price Index MoM0.10%     —     —
11/18/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —     —
11/18/2025Import Price Index YoY     —     —     —
11/18/2025Export Price Index MoM     —     —     —
11/18/2025Export Price Index YoY     —     —     —
11/18/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-23.6
11/18/2025Industrial Production MoM0.00%     —     —
11/18/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%     —     —
11/18/2025Capacity Utilization77.40%     —     —
11/18/2025NAHB Housing Market Index36     —37
11/18/2025Factory Orders1.40%     —-1.30%
11/18/2025Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —0.60%
11/18/2025Durable Goods Orders2.90%     —2.90%
11/18/2025Durables Ex Transportation0.40%     —0.40%
11/18/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.60%     —0.60%
11/18/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —-0.30%
11/18/2025Total Net TIC Flows     —     —     —
11/18/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —     —
11/19/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —0.60%
11/19/2025Trade Balance-$60.3b     —-$78.3b
11/19/2025Exports MoM     —     —0.30%
11/19/2025Imports MoM     —     —5.90%
11/19/2025FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —
11/20/2025Initial Jobless Claims225k     —     —
11/20/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —     —
11/20/2025Continuing Claims1939k     —     —
11/20/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls50k     —22k
11/20/2025Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-21k
11/20/2025Change in Private Payrolls65k     —38k
11/20/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls     —     —-12k
11/20/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —29k
11/20/2025Unemployment Rate4.30%     —4.30%
11/20/2025Labor Force Participation Rate     —     —62.30%
11/20/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%
11/20/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY     —     —3.70%
11/20/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.2     —34.2
11/20/2025Underemployment Rate     —     —8.10%
11/20/2025Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook1     —-12.8
11/20/2025Leading Index-0.30%     —     —
11/20/2025Existing Home Sales4.10m     —4.06m
11/20/2025Existing Home Sales MoM1.00%     —1.50%
11/20/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity     —     —6
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Housing Starts1328k     —1307k
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Business Inventories     —     —0.20%
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM     —     —0.60%
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Building Permits1317k     —1330k
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Housing Starts MoM1.60%     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Advance Goods Trade Balance     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Retail Sales Control Group     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Building Permits MoM-1.00%     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Retail Inventories MoM     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales MoM     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Durable Goods Orders     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Durables Ex Transportation     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —
11/21/2025Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey   
11/21/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —0.70%
11/21/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —0.40%
11/21/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI52     —52.5
11/21/2025S&P Global US Services PMI55     —54.8
11/21/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —54.6
11/21/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment50.8     —50.3
11/21/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —52.3
11/21/2025U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —49
11/21/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.70%
11/21/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.60%
11/21/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —-5
11/24/2025Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —     —
11/24/2025Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —-5
11/24/2025Fed Releases Annual Revision to Industrial Production   

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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