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Author Kirby Hart

Published

Estimated

The Treasury curve is 3-6 bps lower to start the day.

This follows another weak jobless report this morning, with initial jobless claims for October coming in higher than expected. FED Governor Waller spoke yesterday, imploring officials to consider a December rate cut for “risk management.” The reasoning behind his point is that the labor market serves as a warning sign of weakness. Fed funds futures now sit at a 49% chance of a December rate cut. All eyes now turn to the September jobs report, which will be released on Thursday morning. On the equity side, equity futures point to another opening lower as the S&P 500 looks on track for its longest losing streak since August.

Kirby Hart
Associate

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
11/18/2025Jobless Claims for Oct. 18 Week Posted on Government Website   
11/18/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —232k     —
11/18/2025Continuing Claims     —1957k1947k
11/18/2025List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown   
11/18/2025ADP Weekly Employment Preliminary Estimate   
11/18/2025Import/Export Indices Delayed by Government Shutdown   
11/18/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity     —-21.7-23.6
11/18/2025Industrial Production Delayed by Government Shutdown   
11/18/2025NAHB Housing Market Index37     —37
11/18/2025Factory Orders1.40%     —-1.30%
11/18/2025Factory Orders Ex Trans0.30%     —0.60%
11/18/2025Durable Goods Orders2.90%     —2.90%
11/18/2025Durables Ex Transportation0.40%     —0.40%
11/18/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.60%     —0.60%
11/18/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —-0.30%
11/18/2025Total Net TIC Flows     —     —     —
11/18/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —     —
11/17/2025-11/20/2025Federal Budget Balance-$228.8b     —-$257.5b
11/19/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —0.60%
11/19/2025Trade Balance-$60.7b     —-$78.3b
11/19/2025Exports MoM     —     —0.30%
11/19/2025Imports MoM     —     —5.90%
11/19/2025FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —
11/20/2025Initial Jobless Claims226k     —     —
11/20/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —     —
11/20/2025Continuing Claims1945k     —     —
11/20/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls55k     —22k
11/20/2025Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-21k
11/20/2025Change in Private Payrolls65k     —38k
11/20/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls-5k     —-12k
11/20/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —29k
11/20/2025Unemployment Rate4.30%     —4.30%
11/20/2025Labor Force Participation Rate62.30%     —62.30%
11/20/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%
11/20/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%     —3.70%
11/20/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.2     —34.2
11/20/2025Underemployment Rate     —     —8.10%
11/20/2025Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook0     —-12.8
11/20/2025Leading Index Delayed by Government Shutdown   
11/20/2025Existing Home Sales4.09m     —4.06m
11/20/2025Existing Home Sales MoM0.60%     —1.50%
11/20/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity3     —6
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Housing Starts1329k     —1307k
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Business Inventories     —     —0.20%
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM     —     —0.60%
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Building Permits1347k     —1330k
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Housing Starts MoM1.70%     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Advance Goods Trade Balance     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Retail Sales Control Group     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Building Permits MoM1.30%     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Retail Inventories MoM     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales MoM     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Durable Goods Orders     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Durables Ex Transportation     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —
11/21/2025Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey   
11/21/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —0.70%
11/21/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —0.40%
11/21/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI52     —52.5
11/21/2025S&P Global US Services PMI54.6     —54.8
11/21/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —54.6
11/21/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment50.6     —50.3
11/21/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —52.3
11/21/2025U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —49
11/21/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.70%
11/21/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.60%     —3.60%
11/21/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —-5
11/24/2025Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —     —
11/24/2025Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —-5
11/24/2025Fed Releases Annual Revision to Industrial Production   
11/25/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-22.2
11/25/2025FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —0.40%
11/25/2025House Price Purchase Index QoQ     —     —0.00%
11/25/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —0.19%
11/25/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —1.58%
11/25/2025S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.51%
11/25/2025Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-4
11/25/2025Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-1
11/25/2025Conf. Board Consumer Confidence93.3     —94.6
11/25/2025Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —129.3
11/25/2025Conf. Board Expectations     —     —71.5
11/25/2025Pending Home Sales MoM     —     —0.00%
11/25/2025Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —1.50%
11/25/2025Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-9.4

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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