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Author Jason Haley

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A quieter overnight session has brought some relief for risk assets.

Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures are modestly higher ahead of the open after shedding roughly 2% of value over the prior two trading sessions, and Treasury yields are little changed. Fed funds futures are still pricing the odds of a December rate cut as essentially a coin flip, and this afternoon’s release of the October 29 FOMC meeting may offer more perspective on the “strongly differing views” characterized by Fed Chair Powell following that meeting. The MBA mortgage activity index slid 5.2% last week with new purchase and refinance applications down 2.3% and 7.3%, respectively. The softer demand corresponded with a 3-basis point increase in the average 30-year conventional contract rate (6.37%) and a 13-basis point increase in the average 15-year mortgage rate (5.83%). The latter is the highest since the August 29 MBA survey.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
11/19/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —-5.20%0.60%
11/19/2025Trade Balance-$60.4b-$59.6b-$78.3b
11/19/2025Exports MoM     —0.10%0.30%
11/19/2025Imports MoM     —-5.10%5.90%
11/19/2025FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —
11/19/2025-11/20/2025Federal Budget Balance-$228.8b     —-$257.5b
11/20/2025Initial Jobless Claims226k     —     —
11/20/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —     —
11/20/2025Continuing Claims1950k     —     —
11/20/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls54k     —22k
11/20/2025Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-21k
11/20/2025Change in Private Payrolls65k     —38k
11/20/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls-5k     —-12k
11/20/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —29k
11/20/2025Unemployment Rate4.30%     —4.30%
11/20/2025Labor Force Participation Rate62.30%     —62.30%
11/20/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%
11/20/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%     —3.70%
11/20/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.2     —34.2
11/20/2025Underemployment Rate     —     —8.10%
11/20/2025Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook1     —-12.8
11/20/2025Leading Index Delayed by Government Shutdown   
11/20/2025Existing Home Sales4.08m     —4.06m
11/20/2025Existing Home Sales MoM0.50%     —1.50%
11/20/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity3     —6
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Housing Starts1329k     —1307k
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Business Inventories     —     —0.20%
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM     —     —0.60%
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Building Permits1347k     —1330k
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Housing Starts MoM1.70%     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Advance Goods Trade Balance     —     —-$85.5b
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Retail Sales Control Group     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Building Permits MoM1.30%     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —-1.30%
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —-7.00%
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Retail Inventories MoM     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales MoM     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Durable Goods Orders     —     —2.90%
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.30%
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.40%
11/21/2025Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey   
11/21/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —0.70%
11/21/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —0.40%
11/21/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI52     —52.5
11/21/2025S&P Global US Services PMI54.6     —54.8
11/21/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —54.6
11/21/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment50.6     —50.3
11/21/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —52.3
11/21/2025U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —49
11/21/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.70%
11/21/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.60%     —3.60%
11/21/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —-5
11/24/2025Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —     —
11/24/2025Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —-5
11/24/2025Fed Releases Annual Revision to Industrial Production   
11/25/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-22.2
11/25/2025PPI Final Demand MoM     —     —-0.10%
11/25/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM     —     —-0.10%
11/25/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM     —     —0.30%
11/25/2025PPI Final Demand YoY     —     —2.60%
11/25/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —2.80%
11/25/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —2.80%
11/25/2025FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —0.40%
11/25/2025House Price Purchase Index QoQ     —     —0.00%
11/25/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —0.19%
11/25/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —1.58%
11/25/2025S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.51%
11/25/2025Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-4
11/25/2025Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-1
11/25/2025Conf. Board Consumer Confidence93.3     —94.6
11/25/2025Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —129.3
11/25/2025Conf. Board Expectations     —     —71.5
11/25/2025Pending Home Sales MoM     —     —0.00%
11/25/2025Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —1.50%
11/25/2025Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-9.4
11/26/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-5.20%
11/26/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —     —
11/26/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —     —
11/26/2025Continuing Claims     —     —     —
11/26/2025GDP Annualized QoQ     —     —     —
11/26/2025Personal Consumption     —     —     —
11/26/2025GDP Price Index     —     —     —
11/26/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ     —     —     —
11/26/2025MNI Chicago PMI     —     —43.8
11/26/2025Personal Income     —     —     —
11/26/2025Personal Spending     —     —     —
11/26/2025Real Personal Spending     —     —     —
11/26/2025PCE Price Index MoM     —     —     —
11/26/2025PCE Price Index YoY     —     —     —
11/26/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM     —     —     —
11/26/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY     —     —     —
11/26/2025Fed Releases Beige Book   
11/26/2025-12/24/2025Leading Index     —     —     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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