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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Yesterday’s sell-off in Treasuries is being partially unwound this morning, with yields down 3-5 basis points so far.

The price action on Wednesday was mostly attributable to two factors – better economic data (ADP & PMI) and Treasury supply. The latter had to do with the Treasury Department’s quarterly refunding announcement, which acknowledged the need for increased auction sizes at some point next year to fund the budget deficit. At the same time, initial assessments of yesterday’s Supreme Court case were that multiple justices are skeptical of the legality of emergency powers used by the White House to levy tariffs. Regardless of economic risks/merits, the government bond market has been thinking about tariffs as a substantial revenue source to partially offset budget deficits in the coming years. Barring a notable increase in GDP or cuts in government spending, a loss of that tariff revenue means higher deficits and more Treasury supply. Seven different Fed leaders are speaking today, including five voting members of the FOMC for 2025.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
11/6/2025List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown   
11/6/2025Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —175.30%-25.80%
11/6/2025Productivity Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
11/6/2025Jobless Claims Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
11/6/2025Wholesale Trade Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
11/7/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls-20k     —     —
11/7/2025Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —     —
11/7/2025Change in Private Payrolls40k     —     —
11/7/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls     —     —     —
11/7/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —     —
11/7/2025Unemployment Rate4.40%     —     —
11/7/2025Labor Force Participation Rate62.30%     —     —
11/7/2025Underemployment Rate     —     —     —
11/7/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —     —
11/7/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.60%     —     —
11/7/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.2     —     —
11/7/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment53     —53.6
11/7/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions58.9     —58.6
11/7/2025U. of Mich. Expectations50.3     —50.3
11/7/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.60%     —4.60%
11/7/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.80%     —3.90%
11/7/2025NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.38%
11/7/2025Consumer Credit$10.230b     —$0.363b
11/11/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism     —     —98.8
11/12/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.90%
11/13/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —     —
11/13/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —     —
11/13/2025CPI MoM0.30%     —0.30%
11/13/2025Core CPI MoM0.20%     —0.20%
11/13/2025CPI YoY3.10%     —3.00%
11/13/2025Core CPI YoY3.00%     —3.00%
11/13/2025CPI Index NSA     —     —324.8
11/13/2025Core CPI Index SA     —     —330.542
11/13/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —     —
11/13/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —     —
11/13/2025Continuing Claims     —     —     —
11/13/2025Federal Budget Balance$55.0b     —$198.0b

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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