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Author Jason Haley

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Treasuries bounced around a bit overnight as stocks fluctuated between positive and negative territory.

This morning, yields are little changed versus yesterday’s close, and S&P 500 futures are down 0.4% ahead of the open. Yesterday, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem (2025 FOMC voter) defended recent Fed cuts as necessary for supporting the labor market, but he feels that current policy is close to neutral with inflation still above target. Earlier this morning, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said that the fed funds rate is “somewhat restrictive” but that “it makes sense to proceed slowly as we approach the neutral rate.” The Fed will stop shrinking its balance sheet on December 1, and NY Fed President John Williams hinted during a speech this morning that the Fed could start growing its portfolio again to stabilize the amount of bank reserves in the system and limit volatility in short-term rate markets.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
11/7/2025List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown   
11/7/2025US Employment Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
11/7/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment53     —53.6
11/7/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions59     —58.6
11/7/2025U. of Mich. Expectations50     —50.3
11/7/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.60%     —4.60%
11/7/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.80%     —3.90%
11/7/2025NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.38%
11/7/2025Consumer Credit$10.230b     —$0.363b
11/11/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism98.2     —98.8
11/12/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.90%
11/13/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —     —
11/13/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —     —
11/13/2025CPI MoM0.20%     —0.30%
11/13/2025Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.20%
11/13/2025CPI YoY3.10%     —3.00%
11/13/2025Core CPI YoY3.00%     —3.00%
11/13/2025CPI Index NSA     —     —324.8
11/13/2025Core CPI Index SA     —     —330.542
11/13/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —     —
11/13/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —     —
11/13/2025Continuing Claims     —     —     —
11/13/2025Federal Budget Balance     —     —$198.0b
11/14/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM     —     —     —
11/14/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM     —     —     —
11/14/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas     —     —     —
11/14/2025Retail Sales Control Group     —     —     —
11/14/2025PPI Final Demand MoM     —     —     —
11/14/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM     —     —     —
11/14/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM     —     —     —
11/14/2025PPI Final Demand YoY     —     —     —
11/14/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —     —
11/14/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —     —
11/14/2025Business Inventories     —     —     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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