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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Treasury yields are 1-4 basis points higher/steeper this morning following yesterday’s larger post-FOMC selloff.

Fed Chair Powell was clear and intentional in pushing back on market pricing of a December rate cut during his press conference. “In the committee’s discussions at this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December,” said Powell. This lines up with the dispersion of the September SEP forecasts as well as the divergent opinions in the speeches made by various Fed leaders in the aftermath of that 9/17 meeting. There are some members of the committee who are more worried about downside labor risks and others about price stability, which is not entirely unusual at this point in a cycle. Pricing in fed funds futures for a December cut has now moved from 100% pre-meeting to 70% this morning. The other headline from yesterday’s meeting was the decision to end Fed balance sheet reduction on December 1. This wasn’t a huge surprise given recent comments from Powell, and it has greater significance for participants in short-term rate markets.

In other news, President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping agreed to a one-year truce on the current trade battle during a meeting in South Korea. The agreement doesn’t resolve fundamental differences but instead appears to buy time for each side to reduce dependence on one another in strategic areas. The U.S. will extend the existing truce on reciprocal tariffs, and in return, China will resume soybean purchases and rare-earth mineral flows.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
10/30/2025Jobless Claims Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/30/2025GDP Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/31/2025Personal Income0.40%     —0.40%
10/31/2025Personal Spending0.40%     —0.60%
10/31/2025Real Personal Spending0.20%     —0.40%
10/31/2025PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.30%
10/31/2025PCE Price Index YoY2.80%     —2.70%
10/31/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM0.20%     —0.20%
10/31/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY2.90%     —2.90%
10/31/2025Employment Cost Index0.90%     —0.90%
10/31/2025MNI Chicago PMI42     —40.6
11/3/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —52.2
11/3/2025ISM Manufacturing49.1     —49.1
11/3/2025ISM Prices Paid     —     —61.9
11/3/2025ISM New Orders     —     —48.9
11/3/2025ISM Employment     —     —45.3
11/3/2025Construction Spending MoM     —     —     —
11/3/2025Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.50m     —16.39m
11/4/2025Trade Balance     —     —     —
11/4/2025Exports MoM     —     —     —
11/4/2025Imports MoM     —     —     —
11/4/2025JOLTS Job Openings     —     —7227k
11/4/2025JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.30%
11/4/2025JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3091k
11/4/2025JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —1.90%
11/4/2025JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1725k
11/4/2025JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%
11/4/2025Factory Orders     —     —     —
11/4/2025Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —     —
11/4/2025Durable Goods Orders     —     —     —
11/4/2025Durables Ex Transportation     —     —     —
11/4/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —
11/4/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —
11/5/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —7.10%
11/5/2025ADP Employment Change-20k     —-32k
11/5/2025S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —55.2
11/5/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —54.8
11/5/2025ISM Services Index50.9     —50
11/5/2025ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —69.4
11/5/2025ISM Services New Orders     —     —50.4
11/5/2025ISM Services Employment     —     —47.2
11/6/2025Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-25.80%
11/6/2025Nonfarm Productivity     —     —3.30%
11/6/2025Unit Labor Costs     —     —1.00%
11/6/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —     —
11/6/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —     —
11/6/2025Continuing Claims     —     —     —
11/6/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —     —
11/6/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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