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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are up 1-2 basis points across the curve in quiet trading ahead of today’s FOMC meeting.

While everyone generally agrees that a 25-basis point rate cut will be announced, the rest (forward guidance, Fed balance sheet, etc.) is less certain. The updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from the 9/17 meeting revealed a wide range of opinions on where the fed funds rate would end 2025, as well as the long-run neutral rate. The absence of official government data amid the shutdown hasn’t helped Fed leaders get any better idea of the economy’s direction. In the wake of that 9/17 meeting, some leaders in the hawkish camp characterized that rate cut (and likely the one today) as insurance against labor market weakness but expressed hesitancy about doing much more amid inflation uncertainty. On the other hand, the doves felt that the labor market softening was a harbinger for softening GDP and inflation over the coming months.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
10/29/2025List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/29/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —7.10%-0.30%
10/29/2025Advance Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/29/2025Pending Home Sales MoM1.20%     —4.00%
10/29/2025Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —0.50%
10/29/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.00%     —4.25%
10/29/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.75%     —4.00%
10/29/2025Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate3.90%     —4.15%
10/29/2025Fed Reverse Repo Rate     —     —4.00%
10/30/2025Initial Jobless Claims229k     —     —
10/30/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —     —
10/30/2025Continuing Claims1931k     —     —
10/30/2025GDP Annualized QoQ3.00%     —3.80%
10/30/2025Personal Consumption3.20%     —2.50%
10/30/2025GDP Price Index2.70%     —2.10%
10/30/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ3.00%     —2.60%
10/31/2025Personal Income0.40%     —0.40%
10/31/2025Personal Spending0.40%     —0.60%
10/31/2025Real Personal Spending0.20%     —0.40%
10/31/2025PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.30%
10/31/2025PCE Price Index YoY2.80%     —2.70%
10/31/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM0.20%     —0.20%
10/31/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY2.90%     —2.90%
10/31/2025Employment Cost Index0.90%     —0.90%
10/31/2025MNI Chicago PMI42.3     —40.6
11/3/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —52.2
11/3/2025ISM Manufacturing49.1     —49.1
11/3/2025ISM Prices Paid     —     —61.9
11/3/2025ISM New Orders     —     —48.9
11/3/2025ISM Employment     —     —45.3
11/3/2025Construction Spending MoM     —     —     —
11/3/2025Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.50m     —16.39m
11/4/2025Trade Balance     —     —     —
11/4/2025Exports MoM     —     —     —
11/4/2025Imports MoM     —     —     —
11/4/2025JOLTS Job Openings     —     —7227k
11/4/2025JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.30%
11/4/2025JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3091k
11/4/2025JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —1.90%
11/4/2025JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1725k
11/4/2025JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%
11/4/2025Factory Orders     —     —     —
11/4/2025Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —     —
11/4/2025Durable Goods Orders     —     —     —
11/4/2025Durables Ex Transportation     —     —     —
11/4/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —
11/4/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —
11/5/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —7.10%
11/5/2025ADP Employment Change-20k     —-32k
11/5/2025S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —55.2
11/5/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —54.8
11/5/2025ISM Services Index50.9     —50
11/5/2025ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —69.4
11/5/2025ISM Services New Orders     —     —50.4
11/5/2025ISM Services Employment     —     —47.2

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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