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Author Jason Haley

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The Treasury curve is bear steepening to begin the week in response to surprise election results in Japan.

A pro-stimulus lawmaker is poised to become Japan’s first female prime minister, and the news sent the yen and long-term Japanese bonds tumbling while boosting stock prices. In banking news, Fifth Third has agreed to purchase Dallas-based Comerica, the largest US bank deal of the year. The combined entity will have approximately $288 billion of total assets, making it the ninth largest domestic banking institution. The economic calendar remains limited amid the government shutdown, and there will be no releases today. Markets are left with private economic data and Fedspeak, and there will be plenty of supply of the latter this week. There are 20 different appearances of Fed leaders this week, including Chair Powell on Thursday. Additionally, the minutes of the September 17 FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday afternoon.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
10/6/2025List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/7/2025Trade Balance-$61.0b     —-$78.3b
10/7/2025Exports MoM     —     —0.30%
10/7/2025Imports MoM     —     —5.90%
10/7/2025NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.20%
10/7/2025Consumer Credit$14.000b     —$16.010b
10/8/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-12.70%
10/8/2025FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —
10/9/2025Initial Jobless Claims227k     —     —
10/9/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —     —
10/9/2025Continuing Claims1925k     —     —
10/9/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.60%     —1.40%
10/9/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.20%     —-0.20%
10/10/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment54     —55.1
10/10/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions60     —60.4
10/10/2025U. of Mich. Expectations51.4     —51.7
10/10/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.70%
10/10/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.70%     —3.70%
10/10/2025Federal Budget Balance$50.0b     —-$344.8b

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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