The Treasury curve is essentially unchanged from yesterday’s close after initially steepening during overnight sessions. The US Government shutdown has entered day 7 and President Trump signaled some willingness to negotiate before ultimately backtracking. Until the government shutdown ends, US economic data releases remain limited and/or delayed. Four different Fed leaders will take the podium in some form today.
Conrad Lofton Director
Date Event Survey Actual Prior 10/7/2025 List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown 10/7/2025 Aug. International Trade Report Delayed by US Shutdown 10/7/2025 NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations — — 3.20% 10/7/2025 Consumer Credit $14.000b — $16.010b 10/8/2025 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -12.70% 10/8/2025 FOMC Meeting Minutes — — — 10/8/2025 Federal Budget Balance $50.0b — -$344.8b 10/9/2025 Initial Jobless Claims 228k — — 10/9/2025 Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg — — — 10/9/2025 Continuing Claims 1925k — — 10/9/2025 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.60% — 1.40% 10/9/2025 Wholesale Inventories MoM -0.20% — -0.20% 10/10/2025 U. of Mich. Sentiment 54 — 55.1 10/10/2025 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 60 — 60.4 10/10/2025 U. of Mich. Expectations 51.4 — 51.7 10/10/2025 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.70% — 4.70% 10/10/2025 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.70% — 3.70% 10/14/2025 NFIB Small Business Optimism — — 100.8
Conrad Lofton Director, Investment Management Group
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