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Author Kirby Hart

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are 2-3 bps higher at the start of the first trading day of September.

The 10-year rate has hit its highest level since January 2025 and trades around 4.78%. The market continues to demand a higher yield given concerns about government spending, persistent inflation, and corporate borrowing for the AI buildout. Equity futures are lower to begin, with the S&P futures contract indicating a -0.60% open. The risk-off start to September follows historical data, which shows September as the toughest month for the S&P 500. The index has lost 0.8% on average in September over the past three decades.

Kirby Hart
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/1/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI53.4     —53.2     —
9/1/2026ISM Manufacturing55.2     —55.6     —
9/1/2026ISM Prices Paid70.8     —71.1     —
9/1/2026ISM New Orders56.8     —56.7     —
9/1/2026ISM Employment52.5     —52.8     —
9/1/2026Construction Spending MoM0.00%     —-0.10%     —
9/1/2026JOLTS Job Openings7313k     —7359k     —
9/1/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate4.50%     —4.40%     —
9/1/2026JOLTS Quits Level3208k     —3232k     —
9/1/2026JOLTS Quits Rate2.00%     —2.00%     —
9/1/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level1768k     —1766k     —
9/1/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate1.10%     —1.10%     —
9/1/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity7.2     —6.6     —
9/01/2026Omdia Total Vehicle Sales16.30m     —16.33m     —
9/2/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.00%     —
9/2/2026ADP Employment Change47k     —44k     —
9/2/2026Factory Orders0.70%     —-0.30%     —
9/2/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%     —-0.40%     —
9/2/2026Durable Goods Orders1.10%     —1.10%     —
9/2/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.40%     —0.40%     —
9/2/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.20%     —0.20%     —
9/2/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.40%     —1.40%     —
9/3/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-46.10%     —
9/3/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —33429     —
9/3/2026Trade Balance-$90.3b     —-$73.3b     —
9/3/2026Imports MoM1.20%     —-1.80%     —
9/3/2026Exports MoM-0.30%     —-0.90%     —
9/3/2026Nonfarm Productivity1.40%     —1.40%     —
9/3/2026Unit Labor Costs1.30%     —1.30%     —
9/3/2026Initial Jobless Claims205k     —203k     —
9/3/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg205.00k     —205.50k     —
9/3/2026Continuing Claims1785k     —1778k     —
9/3/2026S&P Global US Services PMI56.8     —56.8     —
9/3/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI56     —56     —
9/3/2026ISM Services Index54.1     —54.1     —
9/3/2026ISM Services Prices Paid70     —70.3     —
9/3/2026ISM Services New Orders57     —57.2     —
9/3/2026ISM Services Employment49     —47.4     —
9/4/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls55k     —-23k     —
9/4/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-103k     —
9/4/2026Change in Private Payrolls50k     —30k     —
9/4/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls5k     —5k     —
9/4/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —20k     —
9/4/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.10%     —
9/4/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.10%     —3.20%     —
9/4/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3     —
9/4/2026Unemployment Rate4.10%     —4.10%     —
9/4/2026Labor Force Participation Rate61.40%     —61.40%     —
9/4/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —7.90%     —
9/8/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism     —     —99.8     —
9/8/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.63%     —
9/8/2026Consumer Credit$13.000b     —$14.173b     —

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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