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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Treasury yields are up 6-8 basis points this morning, driven by multiple catalysts.

The 2-year yield is now at 4.50%, and the 10-year yield has breached 4.90%. Tit-for-tat escalation concerns in the Middle East are boosting oil prices, with Brent crude futures up 4% to $105 per barrel. The European Central Bank raised its benchmark rate today, as expected, while also raising its inflation outlook. On the data front, the August Producer Price Index (PPI) was largely in line with expectations across all the major components, but there were upward revisions to the prior month. In a separate report, jobless claims held steady last week at 206,000. We’ll see what comes out tomorrow with the CPI report, but as it stands today, the labor market appears to still be on solid footing while inflation remains elevated as the Fed enters next week’s FOMC deliberations.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/10/2026Initial Jobless Claims205k206k206k207k
9/10/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —206.00k207.25k207.50k
9/10/2026Continuing Claims1780k1774k1779k1775k
9/10/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.40%0.40%0.00%0.10%
9/10/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.20%0.20%0.30%
9/10/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%0.30%0.40%     —
9/10/2026PPI Final Demand YoY5.30%5.40%4.70%4.80%
9/10/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.60%4.60%4.20%     —
9/10/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY4.70%4.70%4.70%     —
9/10/2026Existing Home Sales3.98m     —4.06m     —
9/10/2026Existing Home Sales MoM-1.70%     —-1.70%     —
9/10/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM1.30%     —1.30%     —
9/10/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —-3.00%     —
9/11/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —0.10%0.20%
9/11/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —-0.20%-0.10%
9/11/2026CPI MoM0.40%     —0.10%     —
9/11/2026Core CPI MoM0.20%     —0.20%     —
9/11/2026CPI YoY3.40%     —3.40%     —
9/11/2026Core CPI YoY2.40%     —2.50%     —
9/11/2026CPI Index NSA334.871     —333.918     —
9/11/2026Core CPI Index SA337.578     —336.789     —
9/11/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment51     —51.7     —
9/11/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions51.5     —51.9     —
9/11/2026U. of Mich. Expectations51     —51.5     —
9/11/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.20%     —4.00%     —
9/11/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%     —3.30%     —
9/11/2026Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$113b     —
9/11/2026Federal Budget Balance-$220.0b     —-$344.8b     —
9/15/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —12.000k     —
9/15/2026Empire Manufacturing12.1     —20.6     —
9/16/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-2.70%     —
9/16/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —0.5     —
9/16/2026Import Price Index MoM     —     —-0.40%     —
9/16/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.80%     —-0.60%     —
9/16/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.30%     —
9/16/2026Import Price Index YoY     —     —5.90%     —
9/16/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.50%     —-0.30%     —
9/16/2026Export Price Index MoM     —     —-1.30%     —
9/16/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%     —-0.20%     —
9/16/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —8.20%     —
9/16/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.40%     —-0.40%     —
9/16/2026NAHB Housing Market Index34     —35     —
9/16/2026Business Inventories0.20%     —0.00%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.75%     —3.75%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.50%     —3.50%     —
9/16/2026Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate     —     —3.65%     —
9/16/2026Fed Reverse Repo Rate     —     —3.50%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr     —     —3.75%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr     —     —3.63%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs     —     —3.38%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +3 Yrs     —     —3.13%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run     —     —3.06%     —
9/16/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$133.5b     —
9/16/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$172.7b     —
9/17/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook32.1     —47.4     —
9/17/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —206k     —
9/17/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —206.00k     —
9/17/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1774k     —
9/17/2026Housing Starts1315k     —1239k     —
9/17/2026Housing Starts MoM6.50%     —-12.40%     —
9/17/2026Building Permits1418k     —1433k     —
9/17/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —4.30%     —
9/17/2026Pending Home Sales MoM     —     —-2.30%     —
9/17/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —-2.50%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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