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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are following oil prices higher this morning despite a general risk-off tone in broader markets.

Oil futures are up 3% on the day after Saudi officials confirmed that one of its critical pipelines was hit in strikes. Equity futures are lower ahead of the open after Anthropic and OpenAI both calling for a slowdown in frontier AI development to provide time to better understand the risks posed by the emerging technology. The 10-year Treasury yield is now just 2 basis points from crossing the psychologically important 5% level.

Beyond AI and geopolitical worries, this week’s focus will be the FOMC decision on Wednesday. Following the release of the recent labor and inflation data, Fed futures are now pricing a 90% probability of a 25 basis point hike this week. The August retail sales report will also be released on Wednesday.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/15/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —12.000k     —
9/15/2026Empire Manufacturing15     —20.6     —
9/16/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-2.70%     —
9/16/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —0.5     —
9/16/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.80%     —-0.60%     —
9/16/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.50%     —-0.30%     —
9/16/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%     —-0.20%     —
9/16/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.40%     —-0.40%     —
9/16/2026Import Price Index MoM0.50%     —-0.40%     —
9/16/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
9/16/2026Import Price Index YoY6.50%     —5.90%     —
9/16/2026Export Price Index MoM0.40%     —-1.30%     —
9/16/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —8.20%     —
9/16/2026Business Inventories0.80%     —0.00%     —
9/16/2026NAHB Housing Market Index34     —35     —
9/16/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.75%     —3.75%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.50%     —3.50%     —
9/16/2026Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate3.90%     —3.65%     —
9/16/2026Fed Reverse Repo Rate3.75%     —3.50%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr3.88%     —3.75%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr3.63%     —3.63%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs3.38%     —3.38%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +3 Yrs3.19%     —3.13%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run3.13%     —3.06%     —
9/16/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$133.5b     —
9/16/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$172.7b     —
9/17/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook31.3     —47.4     —
9/17/2026Initial Jobless Claims208k     —206k     —
9/17/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —206.00k     —
9/17/2026Continuing Claims1781k     —1774k     —
9/17/2026Housing Starts1315k     —1239k     —
9/17/2026Housing Starts MoM6.90%     —-12.40%     —
9/17/2026Building Permits1405k     —1433k     —
9/17/2026Building Permits MoM-1.60%     —4.30%     —
9/17/2026Pending Home Sales MoM0.00%     —-2.30%     —
9/17/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —-2.50%     —
9/18/2026Industrial Production MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
9/18/2026Manufacturing Production MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
9/18/2026Capacity Utilization76.40%     —76.30%     —
9/18/2026Leading Index0.10%     —0.20%     —
9/21/2026Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks at Event    
9/21/2026Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —-0.08     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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