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Author Kirby Hart

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields have reversed course from yesterday and are 4-7 bps higher in a bear flattening move.

This comes as oil prices fall for the third straight day, while the market continues to price in more rate hikes, pushing the front of the curve higher. Friday’s main economic headline has come from the Bank of Japan raising its benchmark rate. The decision was split, with two board members voting against the hike, suggesting the bank may not increase rates as quickly as anticipated. The yen weakened versus the dollar by 1.2% after this news. On the equity side, futures show a relatively flat open for the major three indexes.

Kirby Hart
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/18/2026Industrial Production MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
9/18/2026Manufacturing Production MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
9/18/2026Capacity Utilization76.40%     —76.30%     —
9/18/2026Leading Index0.10%     —0.20%     —
9/21/2026Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks at Event    
9/21/2026Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.06     —-0.08     —
9/22/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —16.250k     —
9/22/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-10.6     —
9/22/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —4     —
9/22/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-12     —
9/23/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-4.10%     —
9/23/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI53.6     —53.9     —
9/23/2026S&P Global US Services PMI56     —56.5     —
9/23/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —56     —
9/24/2026Current Account Balance     —     —-$226.8b     —
9/24/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —196k     —
9/24/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —203.25k     —
9/24/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1730k     —
9/24/2026New Home Sales615k     —607k     —
9/24/2026New Home Sales MoM1.30%     —-10.50%     —
9/24/2026Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity     —     —10     —
9/24/2026Building Permits     —     —1394k     —
9/24/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —-2.70%     —
9/25/2026Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey    
9/25/2026Durable Goods Orders-0.30%     —1.10%     —
9/25/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.50%     —0.40%     —
9/25/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%     —0.00%     —
9/25/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —1.20%     —
9/25/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment47.8     —47.8     —
9/25/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —50.9     —
9/25/2026U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —45.8     —
9/25/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.60%     —
9/25/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.40%     —
9/25/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —-3     —

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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