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Author Kirby Hart

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are 6-8 bps lower across the curve after the bear flattening move following the Fed’s 25 bps rate hike yesterday.

The front of the curve moved higher after the rate hike and the Fed’s suggestion of another hike by the end of the year. The market is currently pricing in a 75% chance of a rate hike by December. Yields reversed course this morning following oil moving lower. Brent crude is down 4%, which has also helped S&P futures rise 1.4%. Investors will be watching supply disruptions in the Middle East closely, as oil prices are the headline risk to not getting inflation under control.

Kirby Hart
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/17/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook32.137.847.4     —
9/17/2026Initial Jobless Claims207k196k206k     —
9/17/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —203.25k206.00k     —
9/17/2026Continuing Claims1779k1730k1774k1769k
9/17/2026Housing Starts1320k1275k1239k1309k
9/17/2026Housing Starts MoM6.70%-2.60%-12.40%-9.00%
9/17/2026Building Permits1408k1394k1433k     —
9/17/2026Building Permits MoM-1.50%-2.70%4.30%     —
9/17/2026Pending Home Sales MoM-0.10%     —-2.30%     —
9/17/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-3.90%     —-2.50%     —
9/18/2026Industrial Production MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
9/18/2026Manufacturing Production MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
9/18/2026Capacity Utilization76.40%     —76.30%     —
9/18/2026Leading Index0.10%     —0.20%     —
9/21/2026Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks at Event    
9/21/2026Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.06     —-0.08     —
9/22/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —16.250k     —
9/22/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-10.6     —
9/22/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —4     —
9/22/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-12     —
9/23/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-4.10%     —
9/23/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —53.9     —
9/23/2026S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —56.5     —
9/23/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —56     —
9/24/2026Current Account Balance     —     —-$226.8b     —
9/24/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —196k     —
9/24/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —203.25k     —
9/24/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1730k     —
9/24/2026New Home Sales615k     —607k     —
9/24/2026New Home Sales MoM1.30%     —-10.50%     —
9/24/2026Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity     —     —10     —
9/24/2026Building Permits     —     —1394k     —
9/24/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —-2.70%     —

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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