Treasury yields are 2-3 basis points lower on the long end of the curve coming out of the holiday weekend.
Manufacturing data for August will be released later this morning, but markets will be narrowly focused on the August jobs report at the end of the week. There is still speculation that the Fed will start with a larger 50 basis point cut at the September 18 meeting, and such an outcome will likely require another jobs report that is much softer than expected. Other labor market metrics to be released this week include the July JOLTS report tomorrow and initial jobless claims on Thursday. Median estimates for Friday’s jobs report (Bloomberg) are a 165,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls and a 10 basis point decline in the unemployment rate.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior |
| 09/03/24 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 48 | — | 48 |
| 09/03/24 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.30% |
| 09/03/24 | ISM Manufacturing | 47.5 | — | 46.8 |
| 09/03/24 | ISM Prices Paid | 52 | — | 52.9 |
| 09/03/24 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 47.4 |
| 09/03/24 | ISM Employment | — | — | 43.4 |
| 09/04/24 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 0.50% |
| 09/04/24 | Trade Balance | -$79.0b | — | -$73.1b |
| 09/04/24 | JOLTS Job Openings | 8100k | — | 8184k |
| 09/04/24 | Factory Orders | 4.70% | — | -3.30% |
| 09/04/24 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.10% |
| 09/04/24 | Durable Goods Orders | 9.90% | — | 9.90% |
| 09/04/24 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | -0.20% |
| 09/04/24 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.10% |
| 09/04/24 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.40% |
| 09/04/24 | Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | |||
| 09/04/24 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.40m | — | 15.82m |
| 09/05/24 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 9.20% |
| 09/05/24 | ADP Employment Change | 142k | — | 122k |
| 09/05/24 | Nonfarm Productivity | 2.50% | — | 2.30% |
| 09/05/24 | Unit Labor Costs | 0.80% | — | 0.90% |
| 09/05/24 | Initial Jobless Claims | 230k | — | 231k |
| 09/05/24 | Continuing Claims | 1866k | — | 1868k |
| 09/05/24 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 55 | — | 55.2 |
| 09/05/24 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 54.1 |
| 09/05/24 | ISM Services Index | 51.1 | — | 51.4 |
| 09/05/24 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 57 |
| 09/05/24 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 51.1 |
| 09/05/24 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 52.4 |
| 09/06/24 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -29k |
| 09/06/24 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 165k | — | 114k |
| 09/06/24 | Change in Private Payrolls | 140k | — | 97k |
| 09/06/24 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -2k | — | 1k |
| 09/06/24 | Unemployment Rate | 4.20% | — | 4.30% |
| 09/06/24 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% |
| 09/06/24 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.70% | — | 3.60% |
| 09/06/24 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.2 |
| 09/06/24 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.70% | — | 62.70% |
| 09/06/24 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.80% |
