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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are 2-3 basis points lower despite weekly jobless claims coming in below expectations at 227,000, the lowest in almost 2 months.

Initial jobless claims suggest the labor market is cooling at a more gradual pace, but markets appear to be reacting more to the Q2 nonfarm productivity report, which showed unit labor costs falling to 0.4% (half of what was expected). It’s somewhat revealing of the current bias in financial markets when essentially all the of the recent focus has been on labor market data (and ignoring better than expected readings of other economic metrics), and today the better labor market data is dismissed for a backwards-looking (and more off-the-run) inflation reading. Regardless, the bigger economic release from the market’s perspective comes tomorrow morning. Yesterday’s JOLTS report for July provided fresh support for those concerned (or betting on) that the labor market is deteriorating at an accelerated pace. Right or wrong, the general premise leading into tomorrow’s jobs report is that it will determine the size of the first rate cut later this month.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/5/2024Challenger Job Cuts YoY—1.00%9.20%—
9/5/2024ADP Employment Change145k99k122k111k
9/5/2024Nonfarm Productivity2.50%2.50%2.30%—
9/5/2024Unit Labor Costs0.80%0.40%0.90%—
9/5/2024Initial Jobless Claims230k227k231k232k
9/5/2024Continuing Claims1867k1838k1868k1860k
9/5/2024S&P Global US Services PMI55.1—55.2—
9/5/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI54—54.1—
9/5/2024ISM Services Index51.4—51.4—
9/5/2024ISM Services Prices Paid56—57—
9/5/2024ISM Services Employment50.5—51.1—
9/5/2024ISM Services New Orders51.9—52.4—
9/6/2024Two-Month Payroll Net Revision——-29k—
9/6/2024Change in Nonfarm Payrolls165k—114k—
9/6/2024Change in Private Payrolls140k—97k—
9/6/2024Change in Manufact. Payrolls-2k—1k—
9/6/2024Unemployment Rate4.20%—4.30%—
9/6/2024Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%—0.20%—
9/6/2024Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%—3.60%—
9/6/2024Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3—34.2—
9/6/2024Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%—62.70%—
9/6/2024Underemployment Rate——7.80%—
9/9/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM0.30%—0.30%—
9/9/2024Wholesale Trade Sales MoM——-0.60%—
9/9/2024NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations——2.97%—
9/9/2024Consumer Credit$12.000b—$8.934b—
9/10/2024NFIB Small Business Optimism93.7—93.7—
9/11/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——1.60%—
9/11/2024CPI MoM0.20%—0.20%—
9/11/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—0.20%—
9/11/2024CPI YoY2.60%—2.90%—
9/11/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY——3.20%—
9/11/2024CPI Index NSA——314.54—
9/11/2024CPI Core Index SA——318.872—
9/11/2024Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——0.70%—
9/11/2024Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——0.40%—
9/12/2024PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%—0.10%—
9/12/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—0.00%—
9/12/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM——0.30%—
9/12/2024PPI Final Demand YoY——2.20%—
9/12/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY——2.40%—
9/12/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY——3.30%—
9/12/2024Initial Jobless Claims——227k—
9/12/2024Continuing Claims——1838k—
9/12/2024Household Change in Net Worth——$5117b—
9/12/2024Monthly Budget Statement——-$243.7b—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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