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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Nonfarm payrolls added 142,000 jobs in August, 23,000 less than expected, and the prior two months were revised down by 86,000 jobs.

Despite the downside miss in job growth, average hourly earnings growth exceeded expectations in August at 0.4% m/m and 3.8% y/y. In the household survey, the headline unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%, as expected. The modest decline in the unemployment rate was driven by a 168,000 increase in household employment versus a 120,000 increase in the official labor force.

Markets have been narrowly focused on the size of the first rate cut this month, and this report doesn’t definitively answer the question one way or the other. Treasury yields are 5-9 basis points lower on the front end of the curve in the initial reaction, a relatively muted response in this environment. In fed funds futures, pricing now implies essentially a 50/50 probability of a 50 bps versus a 25 bps cut. Of course, the more important question is the overall trajectory of the economy over the next 12 months and how accommodative the Fed will ultimately be over that timeframe, as opposed to the pace of cuts over the next few months. The labor market appears to be slowing at a gradual pace (as opposed to falling off a cliff), which would presumably be accompanied by a gradual Fed response.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/6/2024Change in Nonfarm Payrolls165k142k114k89k
9/6/2024Two-Month Payroll Net Revision—-86k-29k—
9/6/2024Change in Private Payrolls140k118k97k74k
9/6/2024Change in Manufact. Payrolls-2k-24k1k6k
9/6/2024Unemployment Rate4.20%4.20%4.30%—
9/6/2024Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.40%0.20%—
9/6/2024Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%3.80%3.60%—
9/6/2024Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.334.334.2—
9/6/2024Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%62.70%62.70%—
9/6/2024Underemployment Rate—7.90%7.80%—
9/9/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM0.30%—0.30%—
9/9/2024Wholesale Trade Sales MoM——-0.60%—
9/9/2024NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations——2.97%—
9/9/2024Consumer Credit$12.000b—$8.934b—
9/10/2024NFIB Small Business Optimism93.7—93.7—
9/11/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——1.60%—
9/11/2024CPI MoM0.20%—0.20%—
9/11/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—0.20%—
9/11/2024CPI YoY2.60%—2.90%—
9/11/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.20%—3.20%—
9/11/2024CPI Index NSA314.98—314.54—
9/11/2024CPI Core Index SA——318.872—
9/11/2024Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——0.70%—
9/11/2024Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——0.40%—
9/12/2024PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%—0.10%—
9/12/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—0.00%—
9/12/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM——0.30%—
9/12/2024PPI Final Demand YoY1.80%—2.20%—
9/12/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY——2.40%—
9/12/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY——3.30%—
9/12/2024Initial Jobless Claims230k—227k—
9/12/2024Continuing Claims——1838k—
9/12/2024Household Change in Net Worth——$5117b—
9/12/2024Monthly Budget Statement——-$243.7b—
9/13/2024Import Price Index MoM-0.30%—0.10%—
9/13/2024Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM——0.20%—
9/13/2024Import Price Index YoY——1.60%—
9/13/2024Export Price Index MoM-0.20%—0.70%—
9/13/2024Export Price Index YoY——1.40%—
9/13/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment68—67.9—
9/13/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions——61.3—
9/13/2024U. of Mich. Expectations——72.1—
9/13/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation——2.80%—
9/13/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——3.00%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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