Treasury yields are 1-5 basis points lower this morning as markets react to multiple economic and geopolitical headlines.
Dockworkers from Maine to Texas began a coordinated strike overnight that risks supply chain disruptions and inflation pressures if not resolved quickly. The strike affects 36 ports in the Atlantic and Gulf regions and is the first such strike since 1977. In Europe, September inflation readings fell, as expected, and PMI data was generally softer. Later this morning, the August JOLTS report will be released, providing an updated look at job openings and layoffs in the U.S. labor market. Yesterday, Fed Chair Powell suggested a more gradual pace of rate cuts in the future just hours after Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) said he was open to another outsized cut at the November meeting should the upcoming jobs reports underperform expectations. “This is not a committee that feels like it’s in a hurry to cut rates quickly,” said Powell.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 10/1/2024 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 47 | — | 47 | — |
| 10/1/2024 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 10/1/2024 | JOLTS Job Openings | 7693k | — | 7673k | — |
| 10/1/2024 | ISM Manufacturing | 47.5 | — | 47.2 | — |
| 10/1/2024 | ISM Prices Paid | 53.5 | — | 54 | — |
| 10/1/2024 | ISM New Orders | 45 | — | 44.6 | — |
| 10/1/2024 | ISM Employment | 47.1 | — | 46 | — |
| 10/1/2024 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -7.7 | — |
| 10/1/2024 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.68m | — | 15.13m | — |
| 10/2/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 11.00% | — |
| 10/2/2024 | ADP Employment Change | 125k | — | 99k | — |
| 10/3/2024 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 1.00% | — |
| 10/3/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 221k | — | 218k | — |
| 10/3/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1830k | — | 1834k | — |
| 10/3/2024 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 55.4 | — | 55.4 | — |
| 10/3/2024 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 54.1 | — | 54.4 | — |
| 10/3/2024 | Factory Orders | 0.00% | — | 5.00% | — |
| 10/3/2024 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 10/3/2024 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.00% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 10/3/2024 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 10/3/2024 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 10/3/2024 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 10/3/2024 | ISM Services Index | 51.7 | — | 51.5 | — |
| 10/3/2024 | ISM Services Prices Paid | 56.5 | — | 57.3 | — |
| 10/3/2024 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 50.2 | — |
| 10/3/2024 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 53 | — |
| 10/4/2024 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 150k | — | 142k | — |
| 10/4/2024 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -86k | — |
| 10/4/2024 | Change in Private Payrolls | 125k | — | 118k | — |
| 10/4/2024 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -8k | — | -24k | — |
| 10/4/2024 | Unemployment Rate | 4.20% | — | 4.20% | — |
| 10/4/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 10/4/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.80% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 10/4/2024 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.3 | — |
| 10/4/2024 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.70% | — | 62.70% | — |
| 10/4/2024 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.90% | — |
| 10/7/2024 | Consumer Credit | $12.700b | — | $25.452b | — |
| 10/7/2024 | Monthly Budget Statement | — | — | -$380.1b | -$380.1b |
| 10/8/2024 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | — | — | 91.2 | — |
| 10/8/2024 | Trade Balance | -$73.3b | — | -$78.8b | — |