Treasury yields are little changed to start the day despite another strong sell-off in global equity markets.
Japan’s Nikkei index fell 4.24% overnight following the 3.26% decline in the Nasdaq yesterday (S&P 500 -2.12%). U.S. equity futures are currently down less than 1% ahead of the open. The tech sector has fueled the global sell-off, with chip giant Nvidia plunging 10% on reports of U.S. justice department subpoenas related to antitrust inquiries. For the time being, the bond market remains myopically focused on the Fed and labor market data, particularly Friday’s jobs report.
Mortgage refinance activity was muted for a third consecutive week according to the MBA mortgage applications index. The refi index fell 0.3% last week while purchase applications rose 3.3%. The average 30-year conventional contract rate held steady at 6.43%, but the average rate on a 15-year mortgage, which is typically more of a refi product, rose 10 bps to 5.98%. Later this morning, the July JOLTS report is expected to show a slight decline in job openings.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 9/4/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 1.60% | 0.50% | — |
| 9/4/2024 | Trade Balance | -$79.0b | -$78.8b | -$73.1b | -$73.0b |
| 9/4/2024 | JOLTS Job Openings | 8100k | — | 8184k | — |
| 9/4/2024 | Factory Orders | 4.90% | — | -3.30% | — |
| 9/4/2024 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 9/4/2024 | Durable Goods Orders | 9.90% | — | 9.90% | — |
| 9/4/2024 | Durables Ex Transportation | -0.20% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 9/4/2024 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 9/4/2024 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | -0.40% | — | -0.40% | — |
| 9/4/2024 | Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 9/4/2024 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.40m | — | 15.82m | — |
| 9/5/2024 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 9.20% | — |
| 9/5/2024 | ADP Employment Change | 145k | — | 122k | — |
| 9/5/2024 | Nonfarm Productivity | 2.50% | — | 2.30% | — |
| 9/5/2024 | Unit Labor Costs | 0.80% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 9/5/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 230k | — | 231k | — |
| 9/5/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1866k | — | 1868k | — |
| 9/5/2024 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 55 | — | 55.2 | — |
| 9/5/2024 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 53.9 | — | 54.1 | — |
| 9/5/2024 | ISM Services Index | 51.2 | — | 51.4 | — |
| 9/5/2024 | ISM Services Prices Paid | 56 | — | 57 | — |
| 9/5/2024 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 51.1 | — |
| 9/5/2024 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 52.4 | — |
| 9/6/2024 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -29k | — |
| 9/6/2024 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 165k | — | 114k | — |
| 9/6/2024 | Change in Private Payrolls | 140k | — | 97k | — |
| 9/6/2024 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -2k | — | 1k | — |
| 9/6/2024 | Unemployment Rate | 4.20% | — | 4.30% | — |
| 9/6/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 9/6/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.70% | — | 3.60% | — |
| 9/6/2024 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.2 | — |
| 9/6/2024 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.70% | — | 62.70% | — |
| 9/6/2024 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.80% | — |
| 9/9/2024 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 9/9/2024 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | -0.60% | — |
| 9/9/2024 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 2.97% | — |
| 9/9/2024 | Consumer Credit | $10.400b | — | $8.934b | — |
| 9/10/2024 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | — | — | 93.7 | — |
| 9/11/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 1.60% | — |
| 9/11/2024 | CPI MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 9/11/2024 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 9/11/2024 | CPI YoY | — | — | 2.90% | — |
| 9/11/2024 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | — | — | 3.20% | — |
| 9/11/2024 | CPI Index NSA | — | — | 314.54 | — |
| 9/11/2024 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 318.872 | — |
| 9/11/2024 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 9/11/2024 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.40% | — |
