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Author Jason Haley

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An upside surprise in Australia’s CPI report has global bonds selling off for the most part this morning, including a 3-4 basis point increase in Treasury yields. 

Dovish comments from an ECB leader and softer German consumer confidence figures weren’t enough to offset the focus on the Australian CPI print (4% y/y vs. 3.8% expected). The MBA mortgage activity index rose a meager 0.8% last week with a 1.2% increase in purchase applications. The average 30-year conventional contract rate fell 1 basis point over the week to 6.93%, according to the MBA survey. Later this morning, May new home sales data are expected to show a 0.2% decline in sales activity versus the prior month.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/26/2024MBA Mortgage Applications—0.80%0.90%—
6/26/2024New Home Sales633k—634k—
6/26/2024New Home Sales MoM-0.20%—-4.70%—
6/27/2024GDP Annualized QoQ1.40%—1.30%—
6/27/2024Personal Consumption2.00%—2.00%—
6/27/2024GDP Price Index3.00%—3.00%—
6/27/2024Core PCE Price Index QoQ3.60%—3.60%—
6/27/2024Advance Goods Trade Balance-$96.0b—-$99.4b-$98.0b
6/27/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%—0.10%—
6/27/2024Retail Inventories MoM0.40%—0.70%—
6/27/2024Initial Jobless Claims235k—238k—
6/27/2024Continuing Claims1828k—1828k—
6/27/2024Durable Goods Orders-0.50%—0.60%—
6/27/2024Durables Ex Transportation0.20%—0.40%—
6/27/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.10%—0.20%—
6/27/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.20%—0.40%—
6/27/2024Pending Home Sales MoM0.60%—-7.70%—
6/27/2024Pending Home Sales NSA YoY——-0.80%—
6/27/2024Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-4—-2—
6/28/2024Personal Income0.40%—0.30%—
6/28/2024Personal Spending0.30%—0.20%—
6/28/2024Real Personal Spending0.30%—-0.10%—
6/28/2024PCE Price Index MoM0.00%—0.30%—
6/28/2024PCE Price Index YoY2.60%—2.70%—
6/28/2024Core PCE Price Index MoM0.10%—0.20%—
6/28/2024Core PCE Price Index YoY2.60%—2.80%—
6/28/2024MNI Chicago PMI40—35.4—
6/28/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment66—65.6—
6/28/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions——62.5—
6/28/2024U. of Mich. Expectations——67.6—
6/28/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.20%—3.30%—
6/28/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.10%—3.10%—
6/28/2024Kansas City Fed Services Activity——11—
7/1/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI——51.7—
7/1/2024Construction Spending MoM0.30%—-0.10%—
7/1/2024ISM Manufacturing49—48.7—
7/1/2024ISM Prices Paid——57—
7/1/2024ISM New Orders——45.4—
7/1/2024ISM Employment——51.1—
7/2/2024JOLTS Job Openings——8059k—
7/2/2024Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.90m—15.90m—
7/3/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——0.80%—
7/3/2024Challenger Job Cuts YoY——-20.30%—
7/3/2024ADP Employment Change163k—152k—
7/3/2024Trade Balance-$71.2b—-$74.6b—
7/3/2024Initial Jobless Claims————
7/3/2024Continuing Claims————
7/3/2024S&P Global US Services PMI——55.1—
7/3/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI——54.6—
7/3/2024Factory Orders0.40%—0.70%—
7/3/2024Factory Orders Ex Trans——0.70%—
7/3/2024ISM Services Index52—53.8—
7/3/2024ISM Services Prices Paid——58.1—
7/3/2024ISM Services Employment——47.1—
7/3/2024Durable Goods Orders————
7/3/2024ISM Services New Orders——54.1—
7/3/2024Durables Ex Transportation————
7/3/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air————
7/3/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air————
7/3/2024FOMC Meeting Minutes————

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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