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Author Chris Eckhoff

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Estimated

For the third straight month, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) eclipsed analyst expectations and highlights a persistent inflation pressure that could delay the Federal Reserve.

The core inflation measure, which excludes more volatile food and energy costs, accelerated 0.4% m/m. Rates markets have quickly adapted to the news and removed a full rate cut in 2024. As of 9:00 eastern, the 2-year US Treasury has sold off 20 bps and the S&P500 Index is down 1.30%. Later this afternoon, the FOMC minutes will be analyzed for any clues on balance sheet reduction and the $39bln Treasury auction could provide an additional pressure on rates.

Chris Eckhoff
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
4/10/2024MBA Mortgage Applications—0.10%-0.60%—
4/10/2024CPI MoM0.30%0.40%0.40%—
4/10/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.40%0.40%—
4/10/2024CPI YoY3.40%3.50%3.20%—
4/10/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.70%3.80%3.80%—
4/10/2024CPI Index NSA312.073312.332310.326—
4/10/2024CPI Core Index SA316.558316.698315.565—
4/10/2024Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY—0.60%1.10%—
4/10/2024Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY—0.60%0.50%—
4/10/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%—0.50%—
4/10/2024Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.80%—-1.70%—
4/10/2024FOMC Meeting Minutes————
4/10/2024Monthly Budget Statement-$223.0b—-$378.1b—
4/11/2024PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%—0.60%—
4/11/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—0.30%—
4/11/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%—0.40%—
4/11/2024PPI Final Demand YoY2.20%—1.60%—
4/11/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%—2.00%—
4/11/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY——2.80%—
4/11/2024Initial Jobless Claims215k—221k—
4/11/2024Continuing Claims1802k—1791k—
4/12/2024Import Price Index MoM0.30%—0.30%—
4/12/2024Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%—0.20%—
4/12/2024Import Price Index YoY0.30%—-0.80%—
4/12/2024Export Price Index MoM0.30%—0.80%—
4/12/2024Export Price Index YoY-1.20%—-1.80%—
4/12/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment79—79.4—
4/12/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions81.3—82.5—
4/12/2024U. of Mich. Expectations78—77.4—
4/12/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%—2.90%—
4/12/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%—2.80%—
4/15/2024Empire Manufacturing-7—-20.9—
4/15/2024Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%—0.60%—
4/15/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.50%—0.30%—
4/15/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%—0.30%—
4/15/2024Retail Sales Control Group0.30%—0.00%—
4/15/2024Business Inventories0.30%—0.00%—
4/15/2024NAHB Housing Market Index51—51—
4/16/2024Building Permits MoM-0.90%—1.90%2.40%
4/16/2024Building Permits1510k—1518k1524k
4/16/2024Housing Starts1480k—1521k—
4/16/2024Housing Starts MoM-2.70%—10.70%—
4/16/2024New York Fed Services Business Activity——0.6—
4/16/2024Industrial Production MoM0.40%—0.10%—
4/16/2024Capacity Utilization78.50%—78.30%—
4/16/2024Manufacturing (SIC) Production——0.80%—
4/17/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——0.10%—
4/17/2024Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book    
4/17/2024Total Net TIC Flows——-$8.8b—
4/17/2024Net Long-term TIC Flows——$36.1b—

Chris Eckhoff

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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