Treasury yields are 2-5 basis points lower (curve flatter) to start the day as risk-off sentiment continues to grip markets ahead of tomorrow’s tariffs announcement.
U.S. equity futures are about 0.5% lower an hour ahead of the market open. Bloomberg is reporting that U.S. automakers are making a last-minute appeal to the White House to dampen the tariffs on vehicles and auto parts set to take effect on Thursday. The automaker lobbyists argue that the tariffs on foreign-sourced auto components could have dire consequences on the industry. Details of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff plan are expected to be revealed tomorrow at 3 pm ET. Recent reports suggest that Trump may be reconsidering a broad and simple 20% tariff across the board, as opposed to a more targeted approach with slower implementation that had been rumored in recent days. U.S. manufacturing survey data will be released later this morning from both S&P and ISM.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/1/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 49.9 | — | 49.8 | — |
| 4/1/2025 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 4/1/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings | 7655k | — | 7740k | — |
| 4/1/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | 4.60% | — | 4.60% | — |
| 4/1/2025 | JOLTS Quits Level | 3186k | — | 3266k | — |
| 4/1/2025 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 2.10% | — |
| 4/1/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | 1714k | — | 1635k | — |
| 4/1/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.00% | — |
| 4/1/2025 | ISM Manufacturing | 49.5 | — | 50.3 | — |
| 4/1/2025 | ISM Prices Paid | 64.6 | — | 62.4 | — |
| 4/1/2025 | ISM New Orders | 48.4 | — | 48.6 | — |
| 4/1/2025 | ISM Employment | 47.2 | — | 47.6 | — |
| 4/1/2025 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | 4.6 | — |
| 4/1/2025 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.20m | — | 16.00m | — |
| 4/2/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.00% | — |
| 4/2/2025 | ADP Employment Change | 120k | — | 77k | — |
| 4/2/2025 | Factory Orders | 0.50% | — | 1.70% | — |
| 4/2/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | 0.40% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/2/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.90% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 4/2/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.70% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 4/2/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.30% | — |
| 4/2/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 4/3/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 103.20% | — |
| 4/3/2025 | Trade Balance | -$123.5b | — | -$131.4b | — |
| 4/3/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | 224k | — |
| 4/3/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1870k | — | 1856k | — |
| 4/3/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 54.2 | — | 54.3 | — |
| 4/3/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 53.4 | — | 53.5 | — |
| 4/3/2025 | ISM Services Index | 53 | — | 53.5 | — |
| 4/3/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | 62.7 | — | 62.6 | — |
| 4/3/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 52.2 | — |
| 4/3/2025 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 53.9 | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 140k | — | 151k | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 135k | — | 140k | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 2k | — | 10k | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -2k | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.10% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.40% | — | 62.40% | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 8.00% | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.90% | — | 4.00% | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.2 | — | 34.1 | — |
| 4/7/2025 | Consumer Credit | — | — | $18.084b | — |
| 4/8/2025 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | — | — | 100.7 | — |
