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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are 3-4 basis points higher following the release of the Q2 GDP report and ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC decision.

There was a lot of trade-related noise in the economic scoring for the first two quarters of 2025. GDP contracted 0.5% in Q1, due to massive pre-tariffs frontrunning of imports by US businesses, which shaved 4.6 percentage points off the topline growth figure. In Q2, the trade (net exports) added 5 percentage points to growth. As such, topline GDP growth bounced back to 3% q/q (annualized) in Q2, slightly above the median economist estimate of 2.6%. The underlying details of the report were mixed. Personal consumption was essentially in line with expectations at 1.4%, but both residential and nonresidential investment/construction was negative as uncertainty and affordability issues weighed on new outlays. Excluding the effects of trade and inventories, real final sales to domestic purchasers rose just 1.1% in Q2, the lowest since Q3 2022 and down from 1.5% in Q1.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
7/30/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —-3.80%0.80%
7/30/2025ADP Employment Change76k104k-33k
7/30/2025US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement   
7/30/2025GDP Annualized QoQ2.60%3.00%-0.50%
7/30/2025Personal Consumption1.50%1.40%0.50%
7/30/2025GDP Price Index2.20%2.00%3.80%
7/30/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ2.30%2.50%3.50%
7/30/2025Pending Home Sales MoM0.20%     —1.80%
7/30/2025Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-2.10%     —-0.30%
7/30/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.50%     —4.50%
7/30/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)4.25%     —4.25%
7/30/2025Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate4.40%     —4.40%
7/30/2025Fed Reverse Repo Rate     —     —4.25%
7/31/2025Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-1.60%
7/31/2025Personal Income0.20%     —-0.40%
7/31/2025Personal Spending0.40%     —-0.10%
7/31/2025Real Personal Spending0.10%     —-0.30%
7/31/2025PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.10%
7/31/2025PCE Price Index YoY2.50%     —2.30%
7/31/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.20%
7/31/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY2.70%     —2.70%
7/31/2025Employment Cost Index0.80%     —0.90%
7/31/2025Initial Jobless Claims223k     —217k
7/31/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —224.50k
7/31/2025Continuing Claims1953k     —1955k
7/31/2025MNI Chicago PMI42     —40.4
8/1/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls102k     —147k
8/1/2025Change in Private Payrolls100k     —74k
8/1/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls0k     —-7k
8/1/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —150k
8/1/2025Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —16k
8/1/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.20%
8/1/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.80%     —3.70%
8/1/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.2     —34.2
8/1/2025Unemployment Rate4.20%     —4.10%
8/1/2025Labor Force Participation Rate62.30%     —62.30%
8/1/2025Underemployment Rate     —     —7.70%
8/1/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI49.7     —49.5
8/1/2025ISM Manufacturing49.5     —49
8/1/2025ISM Prices Paid70     —69.7
8/1/2025ISM New Orders     —     —46.4
8/1/2025ISM Employment46.5     —45
8/1/2025Construction Spending MoM0.00%     —-0.30%
8/1/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment62     —61.8
8/1/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions67     —66.8
8/1/2025U. of Mich. Expectations58.9     —58.6
8/1/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.40%     —4.40%
8/1/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.60%     —3.60%
8/1/2025Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.00m     —15.34m
8/4/2025Factory Orders-5.00%     —8.20%
8/4/2025Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —0.20%
8/4/2025Durable Goods Orders     —     —-9.30%
8/4/2025Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.20%
8/4/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —-0.70%
8/4/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.40%
8/5/2025Trade Balance-$72.6b     —-$71.5b
8/5/2025Exports MoM     —     —-4.00%
8/5/2025Imports MoM     —     —-0.10%
8/5/2025S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —55.2
8/5/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —54.6
8/5/2025ISM Services Index51.4     —50.8
8/5/2025ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —67.5
8/5/2025ISM Services New Orders     —     —51.3
8/5/2025ISM Services Employment     —     —47.2
8/6/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-3.80%

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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