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Author Jason Haley

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A global risk-off trade overnight has largely faded, and Treasury yields are slightly higher to start the day.

Tech stocks have pared losses as well, with Nasdaq 100 futures down only 0.2% as of 8:30 am ET. The ADP employment report showed better than expected growth in private payrolls for October (42k vs. 30k). With no government data available, this is one of the few metrics available for tracking the labor market for now. Later this morning, services sector data for October will be released by S&P and ISM. Lawmakers from both parties are expressing optimism that the longest government shutdown in US history could end soon, but the economic costs are building. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the shutdown will reduce Q4 GDP growth by as much as 2 percentage points if it persists through the end of this month.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
11/5/2025List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown   
11/5/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —-1.90%7.10%
11/5/2025ADP Employment Change30k42k-32k
11/5/2025US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement   
11/5/2025S&P Global US Services PMI55.2     —55.2
11/5/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI54.9     —54.8
11/5/2025ISM Services Index50.8     —50
11/5/2025ISM Services Prices Paid68     —69.4
11/5/2025ISM Services New Orders51     —50.4
11/5/2025ISM Services Employment47.6     —47.2
11/6/2025Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-25.80%
11/6/2025Nonfarm Productivity3.30%     —3.30%
11/6/2025Unit Labor Costs0.90%     —1.00%
11/6/2025Initial Jobless Claims225k     —     —
11/6/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —     —
11/6/2025Continuing Claims1948k     —     —
11/6/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —     —
11/6/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —     —
11/7/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls-20k     —     —
11/7/2025Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —     —
11/7/2025Change in Private Payrolls34k     —     —
11/7/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls     —     —     —
11/7/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —     —
11/7/2025Unemployment Rate4.40%     —     —
11/7/2025Labor Force Participation Rate     —     —     —
11/7/2025Underemployment Rate     —     —     —
11/7/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —     —
11/7/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.60%     —     —
11/7/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.2     —     —
11/7/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment53     —53.6
11/7/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions58.9     —58.6
11/7/2025U. of Mich. Expectations50.3     —50.3
11/7/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.60%     —4.60%
11/7/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.80%     —3.90%
11/7/2025NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.38%
11/7/2025Consumer Credit$10.000b     —$0.363b
11/11/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism     —     —98.8
11/12/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.90%

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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