Treasuries bounced around a bit overnight as stocks fluctuated between positive and negative territory.
This morning, yields are little changed versus yesterday’s close, and S&P 500 futures are down 0.4% ahead of the open. Yesterday, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem (2025 FOMC voter) defended recent Fed cuts as necessary for supporting the labor market, but he feels that current policy is close to neutral with inflation still above target. Earlier this morning, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said that the fed funds rate is “somewhat restrictive” but that “it makes sense to proceed slowly as we approach the neutral rate.” The Fed will stop shrinking its balance sheet on December 1, and NY Fed President John Williams hinted during a speech this morning that the Fed could start growing its portfolio again to stabilize the amount of bank reserves in the system and limit volatility in short-term rate markets.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 11/7/2025 | List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown | |||
| 11/7/2025 | US Employment Report Delayed by Government Shutdown | |||
| 11/7/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 53 | — | 53.6 |
| 11/7/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 59 | — | 58.6 |
| 11/7/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 50 | — | 50.3 |
| 11/7/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 4.60% | — | 4.60% |
| 11/7/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.80% | — | 3.90% |
| 11/7/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.38% |
| 11/7/2025 | Consumer Credit | $10.230b | — | $0.363b |
| 11/11/2025 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 98.2 | — | 98.8 |
| 11/12/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -1.90% |
| 11/13/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | — |
| 11/13/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | — |
| 11/13/2025 | CPI MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% |
| 11/13/2025 | Core CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% |
| 11/13/2025 | CPI YoY | 3.10% | — | 3.00% |
| 11/13/2025 | Core CPI YoY | 3.00% | — | 3.00% |
| 11/13/2025 | CPI Index NSA | — | — | 324.8 |
| 11/13/2025 | Core CPI Index SA | — | — | 330.542 |
| 11/13/2025 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | — |
| 11/13/2025 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | — |
| 11/13/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | — |
| 11/13/2025 | Federal Budget Balance | — | — | $198.0b |
| 11/14/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | — | — | — |
| 11/14/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | — | — | — |
| 11/14/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | — | — | — |
| 11/14/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | — | — | — |
| 11/14/2025 | PPI Final Demand MoM | — | — | — |
| 11/14/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | — | — | — |
| 11/14/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | — | — | — |
| 11/14/2025 | PPI Final Demand YoY | — | — | — |
| 11/14/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | — | — | — |
| 11/14/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | — |
| 11/14/2025 | Business Inventories | — | — | — |
