Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Markets are digesting multiple labor market reports released this morning.

Initial jobless claims were 220,000 last week, a relatively mild level and below the 227,000 expected. The number of continuing unemployment claims was more than expected though at 1.974 million. With the shutdown in the rearview mirror, the government also released the September jobs report, which showed much higher growth in nonfarm payrolls than expected (119,000 vs. 51,000), including 97,000 jobs added to private sector payrolls. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% (up 12 basis points unrounded), but the increase was largely attributable to a 470,000 increase in the official labor force (the denominator).

Yesterday, the market priced for reduced odds of a December rate cut after the minutes of the October 19 FOMC meeting revealed that the bulk of the participants were leaning toward holding steady at the next meeting. In the initial reaction to this morning’s data, front-end Treasury yields are down 2 basis points, perhaps responding to the uptick in the unemployment rate. However, the data released this morning in aggregate doesn’t depict clear deterioration of the labor market.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
11/20/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —224.25k     —
11/20/2025Continuing Claims1950k1974k     —
11/20/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls51k119k22k
11/20/2025Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —-33k-21k
11/20/2025Change in Private Payrolls65k97k38k
11/20/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls-7k-6k-12k
11/20/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —62k29k
11/20/2025Unemployment Rate4.30%4.40%4.30%
11/20/2025Labor Force Participation Rate62.30%62.40%62.30%
11/20/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%0.30%
11/20/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%3.80%3.70%
11/20/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.234.234.2
11/20/2025Underemployment Rate     —8.00%8.10%
11/20/2025Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook1-1.7-12.8
11/20/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —228k     —
11/20/2025Initial Jobless Claims227k220k228k
11/20/2025Leading Index Delayed by Government Shutdown   
11/20/2025Existing Home Sales4.08m     —4.06m
11/20/2025Existing Home Sales MoM0.50%     —1.50%
11/20/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity3     —6
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Housing Starts1329k     —1307k
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Advance Goods Trade Balance     —     —-$85.5b
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —-1.30%
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —-7.00%
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Building Permits1347k     —1330k
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Housing Starts MoM1.70%     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Building Permits MoM1.30%     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025Retail Inventories MoM     —     —     —
11/20/2025-11/21/2025Federal Budget Balance-$230.0b     —-$257.5b
11/20/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales     —     —     —
11/20/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales MoM     —     —     —
11/21/2025Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey   
11/21/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —0.70%
11/21/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —0.40%
11/21/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI52     —52.5
11/21/2025S&P Global US Services PMI54.6     —54.8
11/21/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI54.6     —54.6
11/21/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment50.6     —50.3
11/21/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —52.3
11/21/2025U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —49
11/21/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.70%
11/21/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.60%     —3.60%
11/21/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —     —
11/21/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —     —
11/21/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —-5
11/24/2025Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —     —
11/24/2025Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —-5
11/24/2025Fed Releases Annual Revision to Industrial Production   
11/25/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-22.2
11/25/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM     —     —0.60%
11/25/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM     —     —     —
11/25/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas     —     —     —
11/25/2025Retail Sales Control Group     —     —     —
11/25/2025PPI Final Demand MoM     —     —-0.10%
11/25/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM     —     —-0.10%
11/25/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM     —     —0.30%
11/25/2025PPI Final Demand YoY     —     —2.60%
11/25/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —2.80%
11/25/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —2.80%
11/25/2025FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —0.40%
11/25/2025House Price Purchase Index QoQ     —     —0.00%
11/25/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —0.19%
11/25/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —1.58%
11/25/2025S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.51%
11/25/2025Business Inventories     —     —0.20%
11/25/2025Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-4
11/25/2025Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-1
11/25/2025Conf. Board Consumer Confidence93.3     —94.6
11/25/2025Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —129.3
11/25/2025Conf. Board Expectations     —     —71.5
11/25/2025Pending Home Sales MoM     —     —0.00%
11/25/2025Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —1.50%
11/25/2025Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-9.4
11/26/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-5.20%
11/26/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —220k
11/26/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —224.25k
11/26/2025Continuing Claims     —     —1974k
11/26/2025GDP Annualized QoQ     —     —     —
11/26/2025Personal Consumption     —     —     —
11/26/2025GDP Price Index     —     —     —
11/26/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ     —     —     —
11/26/2025Durable Goods Orders     —     —2.90%
11/26/2025Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.30%
11/26/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —-0.40%
11/26/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.40%
11/26/2025MNI Chicago PMI     —     —43.8
11/26/2025Personal Income     —     —     —
11/26/2025Personal Spending     —     —     —
11/26/2025Real Personal Spending     —     —     —
11/26/2025PCE Price Index MoM     —     —     —
11/26/2025PCE Price Index YoY     —     —     —
11/26/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM     —     —     —
11/26/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY     —     —     —
11/26/2025Fed Releases Beige Book   
11/26/2025-12/24/2025Leading Index     —     —     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.