Author Jason Haley
Published January 15, 2026
Estimated
It’s a tamer open for U.S. markets this morning after President Trump seemed to temper worries of an imminent attack on Iran late yesterday. Oil prices are down more than 4%, and gold and silver prices are pulling back as well. Initial jobless claims were well below expectations, falling below 200,000 last week to 198,000. The 4-week moving average of initial claims fell to 205,000, the lowest since January 2024. The number of continuing jobless claims, which lags the initial claims data by a week, came down more than expected to 1.884 million. Treasury yields are now 4 basis points higher on the front-end of the curve following the release of this morning’s data.
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised 1/15/2026 Empire Manufacturing 1 7.7 -3.9 -3.7 1/15/2026 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook -1.4 12.6 -10.2 -8.8 1/15/2026 Initial Jobless Claims 215k 198k 208k — 1/15/2026 Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg — 205.00k 211.75k 211.50k 1/15/2026 Continuing Claims 1897k 1884k 1914k 1903k 1/15/2026 Import Price Index YoY -0.20% 0.10% — — 1/15/2026 Export Price Index YoY — 3.30% — — 1/15/2026 Total Net TIC Flows — — -$37.3b — 1/15/2026 Net Long-term TIC Flows — — $17.5b — 1/16/2026 New York Fed Services Business Activity — — -20 — 1/16/2026 Industrial Production MoM 0.10% — 0.20% — 1/16/2026 Manufacturing (SIC) Production -0.10% — 0.00% — 1/16/2026 Capacity Utilization 76.00% — 76.00% — 1/16/2026 NAHB Housing Market Index 40 — 39 —
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
LinkedIn
ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.
Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.
Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.
