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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Treasuries are little changed to start the week despite some volatility in currency markets overnight.

The Japanese yen rallied as much as 1.5% versus the US dollar overnight on reports of possible coordinated currency market intervention by U.S. and Japanese authorities. Japanese bond yields have risen sharply in recent months, with long-end yields at the highest levels since the late 1990s. There is some concern that Japanese investment capital is flowing out of the U.S. now that domestic yields are more attractive.

This week’s FOMC meeting should be less exciting with no policy shift expected, but there will still likely be one or more dissenting votes. The risk of another government shutdown by the end of the month increased over the weekend following the tragic event in Minnesota. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is threatening to block the government spending package unless Republicans agree to strip funding for the Department of Homeland Security.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
1/26/2026Chicago Fed to Release Oct. and Nov. National Activity Index    
1/26/2026Durable Goods Orders4.00%5.30%-2.20%-2.10%
1/26/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.30%0.50%0.10%     —
1/26/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.30%0.70%0.50%0.30%
1/26/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.20%0.40%0.80%     —
1/26/2026Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.2-0.04     —     —
1/26/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-8.5     —-10.9     —
1/27/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —8.000k     —
1/27/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.40%     —
1/27/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA0.20%     —0.32%     —
1/27/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA1.20%     —1.31%     —
1/27/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.36%     —
1/27/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index-5     —-7     —
1/27/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-11     —
1/27/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence90.6     —89.1     —
1/27/2026Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —116.8     —
1/27/2026Conf. Board Expectations     —     —70.7     —
1/27/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-3.3     —
1/28/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —14.10%     —
1/28/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.75%     —3.75%     —
1/28/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.50%     —3.50%     —
1/28/2026Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate3.65%     —3.65%     —
1/28/2026Fed Reverse Repo Rate     —     —3.50%     —
1/29/2026Nonfarm Productivity4.90%     —4.90%     —
1/29/2026Unit Labor Costs-1.90%     —-1.90%     —
1/29/2026Initial Jobless Claims205k     —200k     —
1/29/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —201.50k     —
1/29/2026Continuing Claims1850k     —1849k     —
1/29/2026Trade Balance-$44.2b     —-$29.4b     —
1/29/2026Exports MoM     —     —2.60%     —
1/29/2026Imports MoM     —     —-3.20%     —
1/29/2026Factory Orders1.60%     —-1.30%     —
1/29/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —-0.20%     —
1/29/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —5.30%     —
1/29/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.50%     —
1/29/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.70%     —
1/29/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.40%     —
1/29/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.20%     —
1/29/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —-0.40%     —
1/30/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%     —0.20%     —
1/30/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.00%     —
1/30/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%     —0.20%     —
1/30/2026PPI Final Demand YoY2.80%     —3.00%     —
1/30/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.90%     —3.00%     —
1/30/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —3.50%     —
1/30/2026MNI Chicago PMI43.5     —43.542.7
2/01/2026-2/10/2026Final Benchmark Payrolls Revision     —     —     —     —
2/01/2026-2/13/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM     —     —0.60%     —
2/01/2026-2/13/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM     —     —0.50%     —
2/01/2026-2/13/2026Business Inventories     —     —0.30%     —
2/01/2026-2/13/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas     —     —0.40%     —
2/01/2026-2/05/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —     —     —
2/01/2026-2/13/2026Retail Sales Control Group     —     —0.40%     —
2/01/2026-2/05/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —     —     —
2/01/2026-2/05/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —     —
2/01/2026-2/05/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —     —
2/2/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —51.9     —
2/2/2026ISM Manufacturing48.3     —47.9     —
2/2/2026ISM Prices Paid     —     —58.5     —
2/2/2026ISM New Orders     —     —47.7     —
2/2/2026ISM Employment     —     —44.9     —
2/2/2026US Treasury Quarterly Borrowing Estimates    
2/02/2026-2/18/2026Housing Starts     —     —1246k     —
2/02/2026-2/18/2026Building Permits     —     —1411k     —
2/02/2026-2/18/2026Housing Starts MoM     —     —-4.60%     —
2/02/2026-2/18/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —-0.30%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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