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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are up another 2-5 basis points this morning, and risk markets are struggling out of the gate amid the war with Iran.

Iran is vowing to intensify retaliatory strikes in the region, and oil prices are up another 2-3% amid continued concerns about obstructed passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Initial jobless claims held steady at 213,000 last week, slightly better than expected and below where claims were at this time last year. Continuing jobless claims rose more than expected to 1.87 million, the most since early January. Tomorrow, the February jobs report is expected to show 55,000 jobs added to nonfarm payrolls and no change in the unemployment rate (4.3%).   

Jason Haley
President & Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/5/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —-71.90%117.80%     —
3/5/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —48307108435     —
3/5/2026Import Price Index MoM0.30%0.20%0.10%0.20%
3/5/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.50%0.40%0.40%0.50%
3/5/2026Import Price Index YoY0.10%-0.10%0.00%     —
3/5/2026Export Price Index MoM0.20%0.60%0.30%0.60%
3/5/2026Export Price Index YoY     —2.60%3.10%3.40%
3/5/2026Nonfarm Productivity1.90%2.80%4.90%5.20%
3/5/2026Unit Labor Costs2.00%2.80%-1.90%-1.80%
3/5/2026Initial Jobless Claims215k213k212k213k
3/5/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —215.75k220.25k220.50k
3/5/2026Continuing Claims1845k1868k1833k1822k
3/6/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.30%     —0.00%     —
3/6/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.00%     —0.00%     —
3/6/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.20%     —0.00%     —
3/6/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.30%     —-0.10%     —
3/6/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls55k     —130k     —
3/6/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-17k     —
3/6/2026Change in Private Payrolls65k     —172k     —
3/6/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls-2k     —5k     —
3/6/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —73k     —
3/6/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.40%     —
3/6/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%     —3.70%     —
3/6/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3     —
3/6/2026Unemployment Rate4.30%     —4.30%     —
3/6/2026Labor Force Participation Rate62.50%     —62.50%     —
3/6/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —8.00%     —
3/6/2026Business Inventories0.10%     —0.10%     —
3/6/2026Consumer Credit$12.650b     —$24.045b     —
3/9/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.09%     —
3/10/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism     —     —99.3     —
3/10/2026Existing Home Sales3.85m     —3.91m     —
3/10/2026Existing Home Sales MoM-1.50%     —-8.40%     —
3/11/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —11.00%     —
3/11/2026CPI MoM0.20%     —0.20%     —
3/11/2026Core CPI MoM0.20%     —0.30%     —
3/11/2026CPI YoY2.40%     —2.40%     —
3/11/2026Core CPI YoY2.40%     —2.50%     —
3/11/2026CPI Index NSA     —     —325.252     —
3/11/2026Core CPI Index SA     —     —332.793     —
3/11/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.20%     —
3/11/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —1.90%     —
3/11/2026Federal Budget Balance     —     —-$94.6b     —
3/12/2026Trade Balance     —     —-$70.3b     —
3/12/2026Imports MoM     —     —3.60%     —
3/12/2026Exports MoM     —     —-1.70%     —
3/12/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —213k     —
3/12/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —215.75k     —
3/12/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1868k     —
3/12/2026Housing Starts1351k     —1404k     —
3/12/2026Building Permits     —     —     —     —
3/12/2026Housing Starts MoM-3.80%     —6.20%     —
3/12/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —     —     —
3/12/2026Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$6064b     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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