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Author Kirby Hart

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are relatively flat across the curve this morning following yesterday’s sell-off.

The 10-year finished down 7 bps, and it is at its highest level in over a month. Brent crude oil jumped back above $100 overnight following increased conflict in the Middle East. The International Energy Agency said this war in the Middle East is creating the “biggest-ever” disruption in oil, with over 7.5% of global supply affected. It appears the only fix is reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump addressed oil companies yesterday, stating they should return to the Strait. Hours later, Iran struck several cargo ships in the region, escalating concerns in the waterway. Equity futures point to a lower open for US stocks following the Dow dropping nearly 300 points.

Kirby Hart
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/12/2026Trade Balance-$66.0b-$54.5b-$70.3b-$72.9b
3/12/2026Imports MoM     —-0.70%3.60%3.50%
3/12/2026Exports MoM     —5.50%-1.70%-1.60%
3/12/2026Initial Jobless Claims215k213k213k214k
3/12/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —212.00k215.75k216.00k
3/12/2026Continuing Claims1849k1850k1868k1871k
3/12/2026Housing Starts1341k1487k1404k1387k
3/12/2026Building Permits1410k1376k1455k     —
3/12/2026Housing Starts MoM-4.50%7.20%6.20%4.80%
3/12/2026Building Permits MoM-3.10%-5.40%4.80%     —
3/12/2026Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$6064b     —
3/13/2026Personal Income0.50%     —0.30%     —
3/13/2026Personal Spending0.30%     —0.40%     —
3/13/2026Real Personal Spending0.00%     —0.10%     —
3/13/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.40%     —
3/13/2026PCE Price Index YoY2.90%     —2.90%     —
3/13/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.40%     —0.40%     —
3/13/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.10%     —3.00%     —
3/13/2026Durable Goods Orders1.10%     —-1.40%     —
3/13/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.50%     —1.00%     —
3/13/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%     —0.80%     —
3/13/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%     —1.00%     —
3/13/2026GDP Annualized QoQ1.40%     —1.40%     —
3/13/2026Personal Consumption2.40%     —2.40%     —
3/13/2026GDP Price Index3.60%     —3.60%     —
3/13/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ2.70%     —2.70%     —
3/13/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment54.6     —56.6     —
3/13/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions54.6     —56.6     —
3/13/2026U. of Mich. Expectations54.4     —56.6     —
3/13/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.70%     —3.40%     —
3/13/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.40%     —3.30%     —
3/13/2026JOLTS Job Openings6750k     —6542k     —
3/13/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —3.90%     —
3/13/2026JOLTS Quits Level3109k     —3204k     —
3/13/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%     —
3/13/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level1764k     —1762k     —
3/13/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%     —
3/16/2026Empire Manufacturing3.9     —7.1     —
3/16/2026Industrial Production MoM0.20%     —0.70%     —
3/16/2026Manufacturing (SIC) Production     —     —0.60%     —
3/16/2026Capacity Utilization76.20%     —76.20%     —
3/16/2026NAHB Housing Market Index37     —36     —
3/17/2026Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey    
3/17/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —15.500k     —
3/17/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-25.7     —
3/17/2026Leading Index     —     —-0.20%     —
3/17/2026Pending Home Sales MoM-1.00%     —-0.80%     —
3/17/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —-1.20%     —
3/18/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —3.20%     —
3/18/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%     —0.50%     —
3/18/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.80%     —
3/18/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM     —     —0.30%     —
3/18/2026PPI Final Demand YoY     —     —2.90%     —
3/18/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —3.60%     —
3/18/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —3.40%     —
3/18/2026Factory Orders     —     —-0.70%     —
3/18/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —0.40%     —
3/18/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —-1.40%     —
3/18/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —1.00%     —
3/18/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.80%     —
3/18/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —1.00%     —
3/18/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.75%     —3.75%     —
3/18/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.50%     —3.50%     —
3/18/2026Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate     —     —3.65%     —
3/18/2026Fed Reverse Repo Rate     —     —3.50%     —
3/18/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr     —     —3.63%     —
3/18/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr     —     —3.38%     —
3/18/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs     —     —3.13%     —
3/18/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run     —     —3.00%     —
3/18/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$44.9b     —
3/18/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$28.0b     —
3/19/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —213k     —
3/19/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —212.00k     —
3/19/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1850k     —
3/19/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook     —     —16.3     —
3/19/2026New Home Sales725k     —745k     —
3/19/2026New Home Sales MoM-2.70%     —-1.70%     —
3/19/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.20%     —
3/19/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —1.00%     —
3/19/2026Building Permits     —     —1376k     —
3/19/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —-5.40%     —

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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