Treasury yields are 1-3 basis points lower in a modest relief rally following yesterday’s bearish move.
Oil prices are back below $110, and S&P 500 futures are up 0.37% a little over an hour before the open. Mortgage application activity slowed last week amid a rise in primary rates. The MBA index fell 2.3%, including a 4.1% decline in purchase applications and a 0.1% decline in refinance applications (4th consecutive weekly decline). The average 30-year conventional contract rate rose 10 basis points to 6.56%, essentially matching the YTD high of 6.57% from the week ended March 27. The minutes of the April 29 FOMC meeting will be released this afternoon and perhaps reveal more insight into the depth of hawkishness that new Fed chair Warsh is inheriting.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/20/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -2.30% | 1.70% | — |
| 5/20/2026 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | 210k | — | 211k | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 203.75k | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Continuing Claims | 1787k | — | 1782k | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 17.6 | — | 26.7 | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Housing Starts | 1419k | — | 1502k | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Housing Starts MoM | -5.10% | — | 10.80% | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Building Permits | 1383k | — | 1363k | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Building Permits MoM | 2.30% | — | -11.40% | — |
| 5/21/2026 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 53.8 | — | 54.5 | — |
| 5/21/2026 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 51.1 | — | 51 | — |
| 5/21/2026 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 51.6 | — | 51.7 | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 8 | — | 10 | — |
| 5/22/2026 | Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 5/22/2026 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 48.2 | — | 48.2 | — |
| 5/22/2026 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 47.9 | — | 47.8 | — |
| 5/22/2026 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 48.5 | — | 48.5 | — |
| 5/22/2026 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 4.50% | — |
| 5/22/2026 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.40% | — | 3.40% | — |
| 5/22/2026 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 3 | — |
| 5/26/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | — | 42.250k | — |
| 5/26/2026 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | -0.2 | — |
| 5/26/2026 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -16.5 | — |
| 5/26/2026 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/26/2026 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 5/26/2026 | S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA | — | — | -0.05% | — |
| 5/26/2026 | S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 5/26/2026 | S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 0.67% | — |
| 5/26/2026 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 92.5 | — | 92.8 | — |
| 5/26/2026 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 123.8 | — |
| 5/26/2026 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 72.2 | — |
| 5/26/2026 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -2.3 | — |
| 5/27/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.30% | — |
| 5/27/2026 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | 3 | — |
| 5/27/2026 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | -6 | — |
| 5/27/2026 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -9.9 | — |
