Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Conrad Lofton

Published

Estimated

The treasury curve is bull steepening this morning with the front end down ~3 basis points and the long end down ~1 basis point.

Despite continued relief in oil prices, market participants aren’t yet ready to say that challenges related to the US-Iran conflict are behind us. Additionally, US equity futures are down to start the morning.

Conrad Lofton
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/23/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —30.750k25.500k26.500k
6/23/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity-16-25.8-23.6     —
6/23/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI54.6     —55.1     —
6/23/2026S&P Global US Services PMI51.1     —50.7     —
6/23/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI52.1     —51.5     —
6/23/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index8     —13     —
6/23/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions2     —0     —
6/24/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-3.80%     —
6/24/2026Current Account Balance-$210.6b     —-$190.7b     —
6/24/2026New Home Sales638k     —622k     —
6/24/2026New Home Sales MoM3.30%     —-6.20%     —
6/24/2026Building Permits1418k     —1413k     —
6/24/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —-0.70%     —
6/25/2026Personal Income0.40%     —0.00%     —
6/25/2026Personal Spending0.60%     —0.50%     —
6/25/2026Real Personal Spending0.20%     —0.10%     —
6/25/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.50%     —0.40%     —
6/25/2026PCE Price Index YoY4.10%     —3.80%     —
6/25/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
6/25/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.40%     —3.30%     —
6/25/2026GDP Annualized QoQ1.60%     —1.60%     —
6/25/2026Personal Consumption1.40%     —1.40%     —
6/25/2026GDP Price Index3.50%     —3.50%     —
6/25/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ4.40%     —4.40%     —
6/25/2026Initial Jobless Claims225k     —226k     —
6/25/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —223.25k     —
6/25/2026Continuing Claims1802k     —1810k     —
6/25/2026Durable Goods Orders-5.00%     —8.00%     —
6/25/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.50%     —1.10%     —
6/25/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.60%     —-1.00%     —
6/25/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%     —0.40%     —
6/25/2026Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —0.14     —
6/25/2026Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity6     —8     —
6/26/2026Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey    
6/26/2026Advance Goods Trade Balance-$85.0b     —-$82.4b-$83.0b
6/26/2026Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —1.90%2.00%
6/26/2026Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —4.00%3.80%
6/26/2026Retail Inventories MoM0.50%     —0.70%     —
6/26/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%     —0.60%     —
6/26/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment50     —48.9     —
6/26/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions49     —48.4     —
6/26/2026U. of Mich. Expectations49.3     —49.3     —
6/26/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.80%     —4.60%     —
6/26/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%     —3.40%     —
6/26/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —10     —
6/29/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —0.4     —
6/30/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —0.10%     —
6/30/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —-0.16%     —
6/30/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —0.83%     —
6/30/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —0.67%     —
6/30/2026MNI Chicago PMI     —     —62.7     —
6/30/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence94.3     —93.1     —
6/30/2026Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —121.2     —
6/30/2026Conf. Board Expectations     —     —74.4     —
6/30/2026JOLTS Job Openings7275k     —7618k     —
6/30/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.60%     —
6/30/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —2977k     —
6/30/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —1.90%     —
6/30/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1692k     —
6/30/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%     —
6/30/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-7.7     —

Conrad Lofton

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.