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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are modestly lower on the last trading day of the week, extending yesterday’s rally.

There were no signs of escalation in the Middle East, and comments from Japan’s Finance Minister fueled a rally in Japanese government bonds, which spilled over into other large markets. Both oil and equity futures are little changed so far. There are no economic releases on the calendar today, but attention will shift to the June CPI report released next Tuesday. The core rate is expected to moderate to 2.8% on a year-over-year basis (2.9% y/y in May). The Fed calendar will be busy next week, with 10 different Fed leaders speaking at separate events. This includes Fed Chair Warsh’s first semi-annual testimonies before the Senate and House finance/banking committees. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
7/13/2026Federal Budget Balance     —     —-$292.6b     —
7/14/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism95.5     —95.3     —
7/14/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —21.000k     —
7/14/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —-0.40%-0.50%
7/14/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —-0.70%-0.80%
7/14/2026CPI MoM-0.10%     —0.50%     —
7/14/2026Core CPI MoM0.20%     —0.20%     —
7/14/2026CPI YoY3.80%     —4.20%     —
7/14/2026Core CPI YoY2.80%     —2.90%     —
7/14/2026CPI Index NSA334.8     —335.12     —
7/14/2026Core CPI Index SA336.93     —336.12     —
7/14/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$26.1b     —
7/14/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$103.1b     —
7/15/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-2.20%     —
7/15/2026Empire Manufacturing8.6     —5.7     —
7/15/2026PPI Final Demand MoM-0.10%     —1.10%     —
7/15/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%     —0.40%     —
7/15/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.40%     —0.80%     —
7/15/2026PPI Final Demand YoY6.20%     —6.50%     —
7/15/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY5.20%     —4.90%     —
7/15/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —5.10%     —
7/15/2026Fed Releases Beige Book    
7/16/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-10.1     —
7/16/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook15     —10.3     —
7/16/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%     —0.90%     —
7/16/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —215k     —
7/16/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM-0.10%     —0.80%     —
7/16/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —218.75k     —
7/16/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.50%     —0.50%     —
7/16/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1814k     —
7/16/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.50%     —0.70%     —
7/16/2026NAHB Housing Market Index35     —35     —
7/16/2026Business Inventories0.30%     —0.50%     —
7/16/2026Pending Home Sales MoM     —     —3.80%     —
7/16/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —2.10%     —
7/17/2026Import Price Index MoM-0.60%     —1.90%     —
7/17/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.80%     —
7/17/2026Import Price Index YoY     —     —6.70%     —
7/17/2026Export Price Index MoM     —     —1.30%     —
7/17/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —11.20%     —
7/17/2026Housing Starts1325k     —1177k     —
7/17/2026Housing Starts MoM13.00%     —-15.40%     —
7/17/2026Building Permits1400k     —1410k     —
7/17/2026Building Permits MoM-0.70%     —-0.90%     —
7/17/2026Industrial Production MoM0.20%     —0.10%     —
7/17/2026Manufacturing Production MoM0.20%     —0.00%     —
7/17/2026Capacity Utilization76.20%     —76.20%     —
7/17/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment51.3     —49.5     —
7/17/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions48.5     —47.7     —
7/17/2026U. of Mich. Expectations52     —50.7     —
7/17/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.60%     —
7/17/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.30%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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