A softer than expected inflation report is fueling a sharp rally in Treasuries this morning.
Headline CPI fell 0.4% m/m versus expectations of a 0.1% decline, and excluding food and energy prices, core inflation was flat last month versus expectations of a 0.2% m/m gain. Year-over-year, headline inflation fell 70 bps to 3.5%, and the core rate fell 30 bps to 2.6%. A 9.7% decline in gasoline prices was the primary culprit for the drop in headline CPI. The softness in the core rate was attributable to a deceleration of shelter costs, auto costs, hotels, and motor vehicle insurance.
The bond market is reacting strongly to the report, with front-end yields down 8-10 bps. Somewhat overshadowed by the CPI report, Fed Chair Warsh declared that he and his FOMC colleagues “have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation” during his opening remarks before the House Financial Services Committee. “If we get policy right – and we will – the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past,” said Warsh.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 7/14/2026 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 95.7 | 97.4 | 95.3 | — |
| 7/14/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | 19.750k | 21.000k | — |
| 7/14/2026 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 0.30% | -0.40% | -0.50% |
| 7/14/2026 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 0.10% | -0.70% | -0.80% |
| 7/14/2026 | CPI MoM | -0.10% | -0.40% | 0.50% | — |
| 7/14/2026 | Core CPI MoM | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.20% | — |
| 7/14/2026 | CPI YoY | 3.80% | 3.50% | 4.20% | — |
| 7/14/2026 | Core CPI YoY | 2.80% | 2.60% | 2.90% | — |
| 7/14/2026 | CPI Index NSA | 334.7 | 333.95 | 335.12 | — |
| 7/14/2026 | Core CPI Index SA | 336.93 | 336.07 | 336.12 | — |
| 7/14/2026 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $26.1b | — |
| 7/14/2026 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $103.1b | — |
| 7/15/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.20% | — |
| 7/15/2026 | Empire Manufacturing | 9.2 | — | 5.7 | — |
| 7/15/2026 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.00% | — | 1.10% | — |
| 7/15/2026 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 7/15/2026 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 7/15/2026 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 6.20% | — | 6.50% | — |
| 7/15/2026 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 5.20% | — | 4.90% | — |
| 7/15/2026 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | 5.20% | — | 5.10% | — |
| 7/15/2026 | Fed Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 7/16/2026 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -10.1 | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 13 | — | 10.3 | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | 217k | — | 215k | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 218.75k | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Continuing Claims | 1820k | — | 1814k | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.50% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 7/16/2026 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | — | 35 | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Business Inventories | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -0.50% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | 2.10% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.60% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Import Price Index YoY | 6.70% | — | 6.70% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.60% | — | 1.30% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 11.20% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Housing Starts | 1312k | — | 1177k | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Housing Starts MoM | 11.30% | — | -15.40% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Building Permits | 1402k | — | 1410k | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Building Permits MoM | -0.20% | — | -0.90% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Capacity Utilization | 76.20% | — | 76.20% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 51 | — | 49.5 | — |
| 7/17/2026 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 48.5 | — | 47.7 | — |
| 7/17/2026 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 51.9 | — | 50.7 | — |
| 7/17/2026 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 4.50% | — | 4.60% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.30% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 7/20/2026 | Leading Index | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 7/21/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | — | 19.750k | — |
| 7/21/2026 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -25.8 | — |
