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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

It was an active overnight session with Treasury prices moving between positive and negative territory.

Yields are currently 2-3 basis points (bps) lower across the curve. Oil prices reversed course overnight as well and are currently down nearly 1% (Brent and WTI). No major data releases are scheduled today, and no Fed speakers are scheduled either. The MBA mortgage applications index rose 0.8% last week, including a 2.2% increase in purchase applications and a 1.1% decline in refinance applications. The average 30-year and 15-year conventional contract rates rose to 6.79% and 6.14%, respectively, while the average 5-year conventional ARM rate fell 4 bps to 5.94%.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/2/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —0.80%-1.00%     —
9/2/2026ADP Employment Change47k38k44k46k
9/2/2026Factory Orders0.70%     —-0.30%     —
9/2/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%     —-0.40%     —
9/2/2026Durable Goods Orders1.10%     —1.10%     —
9/2/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.40%     —0.40%     —
9/2/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.30%     —0.20%     —
9/2/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.40%     —1.40%     —
9/3/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-46.10%     —
9/3/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —33429     —
9/3/2026Trade Balance-$90.3b     —-$73.3b     —
9/3/2026Imports MoM1.20%     —-1.80%     —
9/3/2026Exports MoM-0.30%     —-0.90%     —
9/3/2026Nonfarm Productivity1.40%     —1.40%     —
9/3/2026Unit Labor Costs1.30%     —1.30%     —
9/3/2026Initial Jobless Claims205k     —203k     —
9/3/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg205.00k     —205.50k     —
9/3/2026Continuing Claims1785k     —1778k     —
9/3/2026S&P Global US Services PMI56.8     —56.8     —
9/3/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI56     —56     —
9/3/2026ISM Services Index54.1     —54.1     —
9/3/2026ISM Services Prices Paid70     —70.3     —
9/3/2026ISM Services New Orders57     —57.2     —
9/3/2026ISM Services Employment49     —47.4     —
9/4/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls55k     —-23k     —
9/4/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-103k     —
9/4/2026Change in Private Payrolls50k     —30k     —
9/4/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls5k     —5k     —
9/4/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —20k     —
9/4/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.10%     —
9/4/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.10%     —3.20%     —
9/4/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3     —
9/4/2026Unemployment Rate4.10%     —4.10%     —
9/4/2026Labor Force Participation Rate61.40%     —61.40%     —
9/4/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —7.90%     —
9/8/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism     —     —99.8     —
9/8/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.63%     —
9/8/2026Consumer Credit$13.000b     —$14.173b     —
9/9/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —0.80%     —
9/9/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —11.750k     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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