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Author Kirby Hart

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are higher in a bear flattening move this morning following the nonfarm payrolls release.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 162k in August versus a 55k expectation. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. The upside surprise in job growth suggests the labor market has more momentum, which may allow the Fed to focus on targeting inflation. The 2-year Treasury is up 6 bps this morning, and the market is pricing in a 60% chance of a rate hike at the 9/16 Fed meeting.

Kirby Hart
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/4/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls55k162k-23k21k
9/4/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —55k-103k     —
9/4/2026Change in Private Payrolls50k127k30k71k
9/4/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls5k16k5k14k
9/4/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —71k20k38k
9/4/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.30%0.10%0.20%
9/4/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.10%3.10%3.20%     —
9/4/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.334.434.3     —
9/4/2026Unemployment Rate4.10%4.10%4.10%     —
9/4/2026Labor Force Participation Rate61.50%61.60%61.40%     —
9/4/2026Underemployment Rate7.90%7.70%7.90%     —
9/8/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism99.2     —99.8     —
9/8/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.63%     —
9/8/2026Consumer Credit$11.340b     —$14.173b     —
9/9/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —0.80%     —
9/9/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —11.750k     —
9/10/2026Initial Jobless Claims205k     —206k     —
9/10/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —207.25k     —
9/10/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1779k     —
9/10/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.40%     —0.00%     —
9/10/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
9/10/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%     —0.40%     —
9/10/2026PPI Final Demand YoY5.20%     —4.70%     —
9/10/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.60%     —4.20%     —
9/10/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —4.70%     —
9/10/2026Existing Home Sales3.99m     —4.06m     —
9/10/2026Existing Home Sales MoM-1.60%     —-1.70%     —
9/10/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —1.30%     —
9/10/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —-3.00%     —
9/11/2026CPI MoM0.40%     —0.10%     —
9/11/2026Core CPI MoM0.20%     —0.20%     —
9/11/2026CPI YoY3.40%     —3.40%     —
9/11/2026Core CPI YoY2.40%     —2.50%     —
9/11/2026CPI Index NSA334.957     —333.918     —
9/11/2026Core CPI Index SA337.67     —336.789     —
9/11/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —-0.20%-0.10%
9/11/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —0.10%0.20%
9/11/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment51     —51.7     —
9/11/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —51.9     —
9/11/2026U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —51.5     —
9/11/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.00%     —
9/11/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.30%     —
9/11/2026Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$113b     —
9/11/2026Federal Budget Balance     —     —-$344.8b     —

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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