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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Core CPI was hotter than expected in August, rising 0.3% m/m.

Including food and energy prices, headline CPI matched expectations at 0.4% m/m. On a year-over-year basis, headline and core CPI were up 3.4% and 2.4%, respectively (both in line with expectations). A couple of categories drove the upside surprise in the core figure. Telephone services rose 5.9% m/m, and travel services, including airfares and lodging, made a notable contribution. Higher fuel costs likely fed the higher airfare prices. The market reaction to the report is limited by yesterday’s outsized selloff. Long-end Treasury yields are actually 2 basis points lower at the moment, with oil prices down more than 3% on the day. Fed funds futures now imply a 90% probability that the Fed will announce a 25-basis point rate hike at next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/11/2026CPI MoM0.40%0.40%0.10%     —
9/11/2026Core CPI MoM0.20%0.30%0.20%     —
9/11/2026CPI YoY3.40%3.40%3.40%     —
9/11/2026Core CPI YoY2.40%2.40%2.50%     —
9/11/2026CPI Index NSA334.889334.98333.918     —
9/11/2026Core CPI Index SA337.602337.765336.789     —
9/11/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —0.30%0.10%0.20%
9/11/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —-0.30%-0.20%-0.10%
9/11/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment51     —51.7     —
9/11/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions51.3     —51.9     —
9/11/2026U. of Mich. Expectations51     —51.5     —
9/11/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.20%     —4.00%     —
9/11/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%     —3.30%     —
9/11/2026Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$113b     —
9/11/2026Federal Budget Balance-$211.1b     —-$344.8b     —
9/15/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —12.000k     —
9/15/2026Empire Manufacturing14.1     —20.6     —
9/16/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-2.70%     —
9/16/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —0.5     —
9/16/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.90%     —-0.60%     —
9/16/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.50%     —-0.30%     —
9/16/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%     —-0.20%     —
9/16/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.40%     —-0.40%     —
9/16/2026Import Price Index MoM     —     —-0.40%     —
9/16/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.30%     —
9/16/2026Import Price Index YoY     —     —5.90%     —
9/16/2026Export Price Index MoM     —     —-1.30%     —
9/16/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —8.20%     —
9/16/2026Business Inventories0.20%     —0.00%     —
9/16/2026NAHB Housing Market Index34     —35     —
9/16/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.75%     —3.75%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.50%     —3.50%     —
9/16/2026Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate3.90%     —3.65%     —
9/16/2026Fed Reverse Repo Rate3.75%     —3.50%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr3.88%     —3.75%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr3.63%     —3.63%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs3.38%     —3.38%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +3 Yrs3.13%     —3.13%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run3.10%     —3.06%     —
9/16/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$133.5b     —
9/16/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$172.7b     —
9/17/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook28.6     —47.4     —
9/17/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —206k     —
9/17/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —206.00k     —
9/17/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1774k     —
9/17/2026Housing Starts1315k     —1239k     —
9/17/2026Housing Starts MoM6.90%     —-12.40%     —
9/17/2026Building Permits1410k     —1433k     —
9/17/2026Building Permits MoM-0.90%     —4.30%     —
9/17/2026Pending Home Sales MoM     —     —-2.30%     —
9/17/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —-2.50%     —
9/18/2026Industrial Production MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
9/18/2026Manufacturing Production MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
9/18/2026Capacity Utilization76.40%     —76.30%     —
9/18/2026Leading Index0.20%     —0.20%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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