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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

It is another quiet summer Monday morning, with no data releases on the calendar for the day.

However, the rest of the week will provide multiple inflation reports. The July CPI report will be released tomorrow and is expected to show an uptick in core prices (+0.3% m/m). Four different Fed leaders are scheduled to speak this week. Over the weekend, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman maintained her dovish position, saying that the weak July jobs report underscored her opinion that the FOMC should have cut the fed funds target rate at the July meeting. Bowman and Governor Chris Waller both dissented against the committee’s vote to keep the policy rate unchanged at that meeting, and fed funds futures are now pricing an 88% probability of a rate cut at the September 17 gathering.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
8/12/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism98.9     —98.6
8/12/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.00%
8/12/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —0.70%
8/12/2025CPI MoM0.20%     —0.30%
8/12/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.20%
8/12/2025CPI YoY2.80%     —2.70%
8/12/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.00%     —2.90%
8/12/2025CPI Index NSA323.286     —322.561
8/12/2025CPI Core Index SA328.52     —327.6
8/12/2025Federal Budget Balance-$150.0b     —$27.0b
8/13/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —3.10%
8/14/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%     —0.00%
8/14/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%     —0.00%
8/14/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%     —0.00%
8/14/2025PPI Final Demand YoY2.50%     —2.30%
8/14/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.90%     —2.60%
8/14/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —2.50%
8/14/2025Initial Jobless Claims225k     —226k
8/14/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —220.75k
8/14/2025Continuing Claims1965k     —1974k
8/15/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM0.50%     —0.60%
8/15/2025Empire Manufacturing0     —5.5
8/15/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%     —0.50%
8/15/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%     —0.60%
8/15/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.40%     —0.50%
8/15/2025Import Price Index MoM0.10%     —0.10%
8/15/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%     —0.00%
8/15/2025Import Price Index YoY-0.20%     —-0.20%
8/15/2025Export Price Index MoM0.00%     —0.50%
8/15/2025Export Price Index YoY     —     —2.80%
8/15/2025Industrial Production MoM0.00%     —0.30%
8/15/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.00%     —0.10%
8/15/2025Capacity Utilization77.60%     —77.60%
8/15/2025Business Inventories0.20%     —0.00%
8/15/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment62     —61.7
8/15/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions67     —68
8/15/2025U. of Mich. Expectations58.4     —57.7
8/15/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.30%     —4.50%
8/15/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%     —3.40%
8/15/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$259.4b
8/15/2025Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$311.1b
8/18/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-9.3
8/18/2025NAHB Housing Market Index     —     —33

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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