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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Treasuries are little changed following a very quiet overnight session, void of any major data releases or headlines.

There is more noise in the precision metals complex this morning, namely gold futures. A clarification from US Customs that gold bars are subject to reciprocal tariffs has gold prices up nearly 5% this morning to fresh record highs. Gold was initially assumed to be exempt from US tariffs. President Trump has decided to nominate his top economic advisor Stephen Miran to fill the vacancy on the Fed Board of Governors created by Adriana Kugler’s unexpected early resignation. Miran is expected to only serve out the remainder of Kugler’s term, which expires in February, giving Trump more time to decide on his choice to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair when his term expires next May.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
8/12/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism98.6     —98.6     —
8/12/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.00%1.10%
8/12/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —0.70%0.80%
8/12/2025CPI MoM0.20%     —0.30%     —
8/12/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
8/12/2025CPI YoY2.80%     —2.70%     —
8/12/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.00%     —2.90%     —
8/12/2025CPI Index NSA323.286     —322.561     —
8/12/2025CPI Core Index SA     —     —327.6     —
8/12/2025Federal Budget Balance     —     —$27.0b     —
8/13/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —3.10%     —
8/14/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%     —0.00%     —
8/14/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%     —0.00%     —
8/14/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%     —0.00%     —
8/14/2025PPI Final Demand YoY2.50%     —2.30%     —
8/14/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.00%     —2.60%     —
8/14/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —2.50%     —
8/14/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —226k     —
8/14/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —220.75k     —
8/14/2025Continuing Claims     —     —1974k     —
8/15/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM0.50%     —0.60%     —
8/15/2025Empire Manufacturing-1     —5.5     —
8/15/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%     —0.50%     —
8/15/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%     —0.60%     —
8/15/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.30%     —0.50%     —
8/15/2025Import Price Index MoM0.00%     —0.10%     —
8/15/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.00%     —
8/15/2025Import Price Index YoY     —     —-0.20%     —
8/15/2025Export Price Index MoM0.00%     —0.50%     —
8/15/2025Export Price Index YoY     —     —2.80%     —
8/15/2025Industrial Production MoM0.00%     —0.30%     —
8/15/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.00%     —0.10%     —
8/15/2025Capacity Utilization77.60%     —77.60%     —
8/15/2025Business Inventories0.20%     —0.00%     —
8/15/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment62.1     —61.7     —
8/15/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —68     —
8/15/2025U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —57.7     —
8/15/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.50%     —
8/15/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.40%     —
8/15/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$259.4b     —
8/15/2025Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$311.1b     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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