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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are leaking higher after the Royal Bank of Australia became the first of the major central banks (excluding Japan) to announce a rate hike following a relatively light rate cut cycle.

The RBA cited rising inflation risks as the basis for its unanimous policy decision. Precious metals are rallying today after a historic collapse from record high prices in recent days. The price of spot gold is up nearly 6% today, and silver +12% as dip buyers emerge. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced yesterday that labor market data, including the January jobs report scheduled for release on Friday, would be delayed due to the partial government shutdown. Regarding the latter, the House Rules Committee voted to move the Senate funding package forward for a full vote, which could end the shutdown as soon as today. Two Fed leaders are speaking this morning, including Governor Michelle Bowman.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/3/2026JOLTS Report Delayed by Government Shutdown    
2/3/2026Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.21m     —16.02m     —
2/4/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-8.50%     —
2/4/2026ADP Employment Change45k     —41k     —
2/4/2026US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement    
2/4/2026S&P Global US Services PMI52.5     —52.5     —
2/4/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —52.8     —
2/4/2026ISM Services Index53.5     —54.453.8
2/4/2026ISM Services Employment     —     —5251.7
2/4/2026ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —64.365.1
2/4/2026ISM Services New Orders     —     —57.956.5
2/5/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-8.30%     —
2/5/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —35553     —
2/5/2026Initial Jobless Claims212k     —209k     —
2/5/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —206.25k     —
2/5/2026Continuing Claims1850k     —1827k     —
2/6/2026Jan. Nonfarm Payrolls Delayed Due to Government Shutdown    
2/6/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment55     —56.4     —
2/6/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions53.5     —55.4     —
2/6/2026U. of Mich. Expectations55     —57     —
2/6/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.00%     —4.00%     —
2/6/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.20%     —3.30%     —
2/6/2026Consumer Credit$8.000b     —$4.229b     —
2/9/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.42%     —
2/09/2026-2/27/2026JOLTS Job Openings7250k     —7146k     —
2/09/2026-2/27/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.30%     —
2/09/2026-2/27/2026JOLTS Quits Level3102k     —3161k     —
2/09/2026-2/27/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%     —
2/09/2026-2/27/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level1732k     —1687k     —
2/09/2026-2/27/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%     —
2/10/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism     —     —99.5     —
2/10/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —7.750k     —
2/10/2026Import Price Index MoM     —     —0.00%-0.10%
2/10/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.20%0.00%
2/10/2026Import Price Index YoY     —     —0.10%     —
2/10/2026Export Price Index MoM     —     —     —     —
2/10/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —3.30%     —
2/10/2026Employment Cost Index0.80%     —0.80%     —
2/10/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%     —0.60%     —
2/10/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%     —0.50%     —
2/10/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas     —     —0.40%     —
2/10/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.40%     —0.40%     —
2/10/2026Business Inventories     —     —0.30%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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