Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasuries and equity index futures are little changed to start the morning following a relatively quiet overnight session.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is lagging again this morning following yesterday’s big selloff, fueled largely by fears of the negative consequences of AI for software companies. The MBA mortgage activity index fell 8.9% last week, the second consecutive weekly decline. Purchase applications slid 14.4%, while refinance applications were down 4.7% versus the prior week. Conventional mortgage rates were lower over the week according to the MBA survey, including a 19-basis point decline in the average 5-year ARM rate, but winter weather likely impacted activity. Services sector data for January from both S&P and ISM will be released later this morning. The partial government shutdown ended yesterday, but the BLS has yet to provide an update on when we can expected January labor market data to be released.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/4/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —-8.90%-8.50%     —
2/4/2026ADP Employment Change45k22k41k37k
2/4/2026US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement    
2/4/2026S&P Global US Services PMI52.5     —52.5     —
2/4/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI52.9     —52.8     —
2/4/2026ISM Services Index53.5     —54.453.8
2/4/2026ISM Services Employment51.8     —5251.7
2/4/2026ISM Services Prices Paid65     —64.365.1
2/4/2026ISM Services New Orders55     —57.956.5
2/5/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-8.30%     —
2/5/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —35553     —
2/5/2026Initial Jobless Claims212k     —209k     —
2/5/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —206.25k     —
2/5/2026Continuing Claims1850k     —1827k     —
2/6/2026Jan. Nonfarm Payrolls Delayed Due to Government Shutdown    
2/6/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment55     —56.4     —
2/6/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions53.7     —55.4     —
2/6/2026U. of Mich. Expectations55.1     —57     —
2/6/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.00%     —4.00%     —
2/6/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%     —3.30%     —
2/6/2026Consumer Credit$8.000b     —$4.229b     —
2/9/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.42%     —
2/09/2026-2/27/2026JOLTS Job Openings7250k     —7146k     —
2/09/2026-2/27/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.30%     —
2/09/2026-2/27/2026JOLTS Quits Level3102k     —3161k     —
2/09/2026-2/27/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%     —
2/09/2026-2/27/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level1732k     —1687k     —
2/09/2026-2/27/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%     —
2/10/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism99.8     —99.5     —
2/10/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —7.750k     —
2/10/2026Import Price Index MoM     —     —0.00%-0.10%
2/10/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.20%0.00%
2/10/2026Import Price Index YoY     —     —0.10%     —
2/10/2026Export Price Index MoM     —     —     —     —
2/10/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —3.30%     —
2/10/2026Employment Cost Index0.80%     —0.80%     —
2/10/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%     —0.60%     —
2/10/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%     —0.50%     —
2/10/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas     —     —0.40%     —
2/10/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.40%     —0.40%     —
2/10/2026Business Inventories     —     —0.30%     —
2/11/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-8.90%     —
2/11/2026CPI MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
2/11/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
2/11/2026CPI YoY2.50%     —2.70%     —
2/11/2026Core CPI YoY2.50%     —2.60%     —
2/11/2026CPI Index NSA     —     —324.054     —
2/11/2026Core CPI Index SA     —     —331.86     —
2/11/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.10%     —
2/11/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —1.10%     —
2/11/2026Federal Budget Balance     —     —-$144.7b     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.